In Maharashtra, the stage is set for a high-stakes showdown as 4,140 candidates vie for 288 assembly seats in a fiercely contested election scheduled for November 20. The official candidate list was finalized after the November 4 withdrawal deadline, but whispers of shifting alliances and post-election betrayals are already stirring voter skepticism.

The last five years of the state’s political landscape, marked by defections and power struggles, have left voters wary. “I’m not sure the party and candidate I vote for will stay loyal,” admits T. D. Gaikwad, a professional, capturing the uncertainty felt by many as they prepare to head to the polls. The roller-coaster twists in Maharashtra’s politics have sparked both intrigue and doubt, with alliances hanging by a thread and loyalties as uncertain as ever.

Just five years ago, Maharashtra was shaken by an electoral drama that would change its politics. In the 2019 elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 105 seats, while its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 56. The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) trailed with 44 and 54 seats, respectively. However, despite a clear majority for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, cracks emerged over the Chief Minister’s post. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray broke ranks, allying with the NCP and Congress to become Chief Minister under the newly formed Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

BJP’s Retaliation

The BJP swiftly retaliated, roping in NCP’s Ajit Pawar for an overnight oath-taking ceremony as Deputy Chief Minister alongside Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister. The surprise alliance crumbled just as quickly, as Sharad Pawar proved his influence, keeping NCP lawmakers united and forcing Ajit back into the fold. Ajit became Deputy Chief Minister in Uddhav Thackeray government.     

In June 2022, the drama escalated. Eknath Shinde, backed by a majority of Shiv Sena MLAs, defected from Thackeray’s camp, joining hands with the BJP and taking the reins as Chief Minister, with Fadnavis as his deputy. Shinde’s rebellion was bolstered by a decisive victory over Thackeray for the party’s name and symbol, granted by the Election Commission, leaving Thackeray’s faction struggling to hold its ground.

Then, in a final act of audacious political maneuvering, BJP turned its sights on the NCP again. In July 2023, Ajit Pawar joined Shinde’s government as Deputy Chief Minister, this time with BJP support to gain control over the NCP’s name and symbol from his uncle, Sharad Pawar.

Speculations Rife

Now, as Maharashtra heads toward the polls, the alliances are drawn. Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and the BJP stand as the Mahayuti coalition; while Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress remain united under the MVA banner. Yet, the air is thick with speculation. Even before the first ballot has been cast, murmurs of post-poll alliances are rampant, with no party leaders explicitly committing to their pre-election partners. Shinde is eyeing the Chief Minister’s post, while BJP campaigns for Fadnavis to reclaim the position. Thackeray’s Shiv Sena is pushing for his second term, but his allies remain silent on the demand.

As Maharashtra’s voters brace for November 20, they’re left to wonder: Who will remain loyal when the dust settles? With party leaders holding their cards close and post-election alliances uncertain, the stage is set for yet another dramatic chapter in Maharashtra’s tumultuous political saga.

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