Satellite maps this morning show fresh monsoon clouds having developed over the East-Central Arabian Sea, some way off the Kerala ad Karnataka coasts.

The monsoon has now covered entire Kerala, most parts of coastal Karnataka, more parts of South Interior Karnataka, and interior Tamil Nadu.

RAINS FOR TN, TOO

That the normally rain-shadow Tamil Nadu is getting showers during the onset phase of the monsoon shows how the Bay of Bengal is positioned to anchor it, going forward.

The Bay basin has already generated a deep depression (next only cyclone status) that travelled towards and crossed the Myanmar coast.

It has since wound down in strength, but has been sending south-easterly winds into Bangladesh and adjoining India's North-Eastern States.

Satellite maps show clouds over the Myanmar coast, Bangladesh, and India's Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, Assam and Meghalaya states.

The clouds rise against the heights of the adjacent Eastern Himalayas as they spill over even into Bihar and right west into its capital Patna.

SECOND 'PULSE' SOON

Some of the cloud parcels are also visible over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha parts of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

A cyclonic circulation parked over the valley of the hills of Bengal may have helped amplify the incoming flows and relay them deeper into East India.

Meanwhile, India Met Department (IMD) said that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to enter the North-Eastern states during the next two days.

It assessed that conditions are evolving for a second 'pulse' of the monsoon to be generated from around from Sunday ( BusinessLine has already indicated this possibility). 

This would send in the monsoon to more parts of the South Peninsula, bringing rains in, or add muscle to the ongoing rain activity in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.

The IMD expects this to happen on the back of a certain 'circulatory features' developing in the seas without mentioning where exactly these are likely to happen.

ANOTHER DEPRESSION?

e indicating the possibility of a low-pressure area or a depression developing in the Bay on the trail of predecessor deep depression.

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has now said that it expected a depression to develop in the Bay anytime after Sunday.

The IMD's wind profile maps flag this possibility, shared by global models too, including the ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.

Additionally, the IMD has said that crucial supportive feature of 'shear zone of turbulence' exists in the heights over the Indian region, promising to sustain the monsoon for now.

Rainfall is expected to scale up over parts of Goa and Maharashtra states, likely precipitating the monsoon over the regions during Wednesday to Friday (June 6 to 8).

Private forecaster Weather Risk Management Services has already alluded to the possibility that Mumbai too might be able to witness the monsoon onset during this period.

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