The disarray in monsoon flows, triggered by a 'flash' deep depression that swamped Bangladesh, continues even as India Met Department expects slight progress in East India.

The Met assesses that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to enter remaining parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Odisha and South Chhattisgarh during the next two days.

TROUGH OFF MOORINGS

The best sign of the state of affairs is represented by the alignment of the land-based trough that normally links North-West India with the Bay of Bengal to the South-East.

This is the path for monsoon moisture to blow in from the Bay, with the extreme tip of the trough that dips in the Bay acts as the gateway for easterlies to blow in and bring the rain.

But, after the deep depression washed over the Bangladesh coast, the tip of the trough was swung away to that country. It is now retracting, and is now located over West Assam.

The based trough has to re-align in such a manner that this end once again dips in the Bay. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says it will take a few days for this to happen.

NEXT MONSOON SURGE

The European Centre says that the monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea would strengthen around June 20 by which time the trough might find its elusive moorings in the Bay.

The US National Centres for environmental Prediction seems to agree, by signalling the possibility of enhanced rain along the West Coast and East and parts of North-West India from June 21 to 29.

The US Centre for Climate Prediction concurs, indicating that Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi might come under monsoon cover during June 20 to 26.

But most of Rajasthan and adjoining northern parts of Gujarat would still have to wait out into the first week of July for the monsoon, according to this forecast.

This morning, the northern limit of the monsoon was stuck along Valsad, Nasik, Parbhani, Adilabad, Narsapur, Paradip, Digha, Kolkata and Krishnanagar, which it had reached two days ago.

Related Topics