Monsoon over west, northwest India may be delayed

The monsoon continued to be vigorous over east and northeast India and parts of the west coast while it was patchy over the rest of the country overnight on Sunday.

Its northern limit remained stuck to an alignment linking south Gujarat, central Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.

It is slightly ahead of time in east Uttar Pradesh but way behind in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, most of which should have been covered by now.

It remains to be seen if it can reach Delhi by the usual timeline of June 29/30, a prospect that appear increasingly remote because of a wavering low-pressure area in the east.

The national capital and its neighbourhood are witnessing thunderstorm activity thanks to feeble easterly winds from the Bay but the ‘real thing’ is still some time away.

The ‘low’ hung in gamely over the northern parts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal latest in a series of shifting positions during the past couple of days.

The swings in bearing do not bode well for either its longevity or the quantum of rain it can precipitate over large parts of the landmass outside of its immediate footprint.

This point was brought home emphatically with Cherrapunji in Assam reclaiming some of its pride as one of the most rain-swept spots by recording extremely heavy rain of 38 cm until Sunday morning.

The ‘low’ may start to weaken soon but fortunately not before having set up the North Bay of Bengal for a likely successor by the end of this week.

The ‘change in weather guard’ in the East would be accompanied by relative change in outlook for rainfall for the week and the next, according to outlook by various models.

While Konkan, Coastal Karnataka and adjoining North Kerala is expected to witness moderate to heavy rainfall this week, the monsoon may open a new ‘wet front’ along the East Coast.

The coast of Andhra Pradesh is primed to receive most of the rain while adjoining Tamil Nadu too may benefit, except the southern parts.

Enhanced activity in the Bay of Bengal of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha would be followed by the initiation of a fresh cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area in the basin around the weekend.

According to US models, this system may send in a rain-head into Central India to set up a wet cover over peninsular India and adjoining East-Central India during the next week, the first of the crucial month of July.

But northwest India and adjoining central India will most likely to witness deficient or scanty rainfall during the first week of the month.