In a country that had failed to carry out distribution sector reforms and lacks adequate transmission capacity, creating surplus electricity generation capacities may have disastrous fallout.

Ask the Tripura government, that attracted the largest investment in power sector in North-East over the last decade, and you will know why.

The gas resource-rich Tripura banked heavily on power capacity addition to serve the dual purpose of industrialisation and earning revenues through sale of surplus power. True to its expectation, it is now flooded with electricity but at its own peril.

The first unit of 2 X 363.3 MW ONGC Tripura power (OTPC) is already commissioned. The second unit, which has been on stream for sometime, is expected to declare commerciality from this month. The 104 MW NEEPCO project is also expected to start generation from March. It means, beginning April, the total availability of power (including central allocations and own generation) to Tripura will move up from 250 MW to 450 MW. Considering a peak demand of 250 MW in the evening hours, the State’s exportable surplus will be between 200-300 MW a day.

For a State of mere ₹3,000 crore revenue budget, Tripura lost a mammoth ₹100 crore in electricity sales in 2013-14.

State Power Minister Manik Dey says the loss may increase in 2014-15. This is because, in the absence of buyers, the State had to resort to either distress sale or pay up the generation utility for not lifting its quota.

Weak demand

Part of Dey’s problems was attributed to delay in commissioning the power evacuation facility from Tripura to the national electricity grid at Bongaigaon in Assam. It restricted the trade with the industry-starved North East.

But commissioning of the project on February 19 failed to bring cheers to Dey. Though he can now sell power to the entire East and parts of North India, there are no takers for electricity at a remunerative price either.

The spot-tariff on national grid hovered between 0.90 and 3.90 a unit for the last three days.

According to a private sector utility, the round-the-clock average that is a much better yardstick to asses the demand, is as low as ₹2 a unit.

Dhaka to rescue?

This is just half the cost of generation of the new coal-fired plants of NTPC. For Dey, who has costlier gas-based electricity to offer, the loss is even higher.

Dey is now eagerly awaiting the completion of capacity augmentation of the 1,971-km Biswanath Chariyali (Assam)-Agra (UP) transmission facility, to help him access the southern regional market. Dey thinks, he will get a better price for electricity in South. But the expectation may be premature as the total demand shortfall in South is minuscule when compared to the surplus capacities in the country.

What may really come to Tripura’s rescue is, the proposed 100 MW electricity sales from Tripura to Bangladesh (this is in addition to the existing 500 MW exports through West Bengal border).

India has recently finalised the sale through a 47-km proposed transmission line from Suryamaninagar in Tripura to South Comilla of Bangladesh.

The transmission project is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.