UP DISPATCH. Of royalty, prince charming and a confident underdog

The tale of the BJP’s ascent, the Samajwadi Party’s muscle and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s resilience in Uttar Pradesh unfolds in all its clichéd symbolism in the dusty backyard of Rampur.

As the epicentre of campaigning shifts from western UP, where the first phase of elections were held last Saturday, to Rohilkhand, the region made famous by Moradabadi brassware and Rampuri chaku (button-knife), an epic battle in the little-known constituency of Suar Tanda is reflective of the complexity and ferocity of the electoral contest in India’s most populous State.

The cast of characters here includes the delicate-mannered titular Nawab, Sayyid Muhammad Sharif Ali Khan Bahadur aka Nawab Kazim Ali Khan alias Naved Mian, the fresh-faced son of the Samajwadi Party strongman Azam Khan and the BJP’s underdog Laxmi Saini.

Naved Mian is the quintessential provincial elite who favoured the Congress until recently. His mother Noor Bano was twice Congress MP from Rampur. But like the health of the party she favoured, Bano is frail and remains sequestered in the majestic relic of Noor Mahal in Rampur.

Naved Mian, meanwhile, after having won Suar Tanda twice on a Congress ticket, is now a candidate for the BSP and is toiling hard to win the favour of the Dalits, who number around 27,000 in a constituency of an estimated 3.10 lakh voters. The Nawab’s efforts are to add this number to his support from among the Muslims which shows signs of deep divisions in the light of “the Prime Minister of Rampur”, the all-powerful Azam Khan, fielding his 26-year-old son Abdullah Azam Khan.

While the titular Nawab and the modern-day prince fight it out for the minority vote, Laxmi Saini of the BJP is banking on Hindu consolidation working in her favour.

This, in a nutshell, is the story that BusinessLine tracked in all Muslim-dominated districts in the Rohilkhand region, which includes Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, Budaun, Amroha, etc. The preponderance of Muslim candidates and the sheer confidence of the community that owns businesses, a meat export industry, brassware factories and agricultural trade tends to blur the caste boundaries that SP and BSP rely heavily on. The beneficiary is the BJP, which is holding on to not just its traditional support base of traders (despite them being hit by demonetisation), Brahmins and Rajputs, but is looking to Dalit communities such as Valmikis and Khatiks, and non-Yadav OBCs such as Sainis, Kushwahas for support.

But it is a dynamic story where everyone is straining to expand their base. UP Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav has been literally flag-marching here. And he is getting enthusiastic support from the crowds as BusinessLine witnessed in his public rally in a different constituency. In Suar Tanda, the popular CM has campaigned hard for the very charming son of Azam Khan, promising to “adopt” his constituency if he wins from here.

Young Abdullah Azam Khan, meanwhile, is confident that there will be no split in the Muslim vote.

“The BSP has never won from this seat. Maywati saheba has given a ticket to Naved Mian because they are both political opportunists. Naved Mian has won several times from here. Even the BJP has won this constituency several times. But we are the ones who worked. We have built roads, hospitals, degree college. I am getting support of all communities, not just the Muslims. All downtrodden sections of the society, including the Muslims, know who their real supporters are,” Abdullah Azam told BusinessLine .

Meanwhile, there is enthusiasm in the BJP camp, which invited Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi to campaign in the Muslim localities for the confident Laxmi Saini.

“We are fighting against Azam Khan’s terror and Naved Mian’s elitism here,” Naqvi said, nudging the candidate forward for the crowds at his rally to bless her. She believes her perseverance will pay off.

“I came second in the last election. I am going to win this time. People are fed of this debauch prince and Azam Khan. None of them have anything to do with the common people and their welfare. I am being supported by the Muslims also,” Laxmi Saini told BusinessLine .

A fierce contest is under way in all its caste and communal dimensions in the heart of Rohilkhand. The only elusive factor that erases all these dimensions is a wave, like Narendra Modi created in 2014. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has not got there so far. Not yet.