PDP-BJP alliance mired in complexity

The BJP’s bid for government formation, and an even more ambitious plan to install its own Chief Minister, in Jammu and Kashmir has more complications than the party had bargained for.

The BJP’s State unit met with J&K Governor NN Vohra on Thursday and reportedly asked for more time to stake a claim to form the government.

“We need more time for consultations,” the party’s State unit chief Jugal Kishore Sharma told agencies here.

The most plausible alliance in the wake of a hung verdict in the border State is that of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which won 28 seats, and the BJP, which wrested 25 seats in the 87-member Assembly. The National Conference (NC) bagged 15 seats while the Congress bagged 12.

PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti had met the Governor on Wednesday and indicated her party’s willingness to forge an alliance with the BJP.

She recalled former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and ventured that the present PM has a “big responsibility” towards the State.

Contrary to popular belief, PDP chief Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s relations with the BJP are quite friendly. Sayeed is known to be extremely close to the present National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who was Intelligence Bureau chief during the previous NDA government’s tenure.

In fact, it is the Congress, and specifically former J&K Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, whose relations with the PDP’s first family are believed to be quite strained.

So, the issue is not interpersonal relations but the reality that the State has thrown up a communal verdict.

In Jammu, the largely Hindu voter has elected the BJP while Valley voters turned up in large numbers for the PDP.

Most of the BJP’s candidates lost their deposit in the Valley while all its winners have come from the Jammu region. Different voter aspirations guide the two parties with the strongest mandate to form the government.

For the PDP, it will be imperative to negotiate at least a timeline for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from the BJP while for the BJP, it is important to keep the Jammu voter aspirations in mind.

The clamour for the present Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office Jitendra Singh to be made Chief Minister of J&K is a reflection of the Jammu aspiration.

Privately, BJP leaders say they are willing to settle for a Deputy Chief Minister’s post, for which the most popular choice in the party currently is senior leader Nirmal Singh.

All these are difficult negotiations and neither of the two parties is presently willing to reveal its plans and contours of the consensus that will have to be reached in order for a PDP-BJP alliance in the State. There may be dangerous implications if the BJP insists on having its own CM or having anyone other than Mufti Mohammed Sayeed or his daughter as CM.

Alternatively, the idea that the BJP can be kept out of government formation too is to invite trouble in Jammu. The Congress, NC and PDP together do cross the majority mark but none of them has a Hindu MLA from Jammu.

In such a complex situation, BJP leader Sharma’s request for more time is only the beginning of a long process of negotiations. It looks like the people of Jammu and Kashmir will have to wait for a while before they get a new government.