While the Prime Minister has replaced one Mansukh (Vasava) with another Mansukh (Mandavia), the million dollar question in Gujarat is: will Narendra Modi now replace a loyalist, the incumbent Chief Minister, with another loyalist Amit Shah, currently the national President of BJP, as Anandiben Patel turns 75 in November, almost a year before the BJP’s “laboratory” goes to the next Assembly elections in 2017?
Party veteran Parshottam Rupala and Mansukh Mandavia, both leading Patidar leaders and Rajya Sabha members — and both aspirants to succeed Anandiben — have been safely packed off to New Delhi as Union Ministers of State. This is being seen in political circles here as ‘clearing’ the path for Amit Shah, who is also a BJP MLA from Ahmedabad, to replace Anandiben — both are Modi loyalists but each other’s rivals — to win next year’s crucial Vidhan Sabha polls in the PM’s home state.
Shah, a former stock broker, is expected to neutralise caste-based dissensions in the BJP’s support base, which is perceived to have weakened over the last couple of years, and bring the western state back into the ruling party’s kitty.
Other aspirants whose names have surfaced from time to time as possible successors to Anandiben — Saurabh Patel, Nitin Patel, et al — are believed to be ‘red herrings’ to distract attention from the real candidate, those who have studied ‘Moditva”, say! However, if Modi decides to replace Anandiben but not by Shah, he may probably prefer the RSS-drafted Bhikhubhai Dalsania, the low profile State BJP’s General Secretary (Organisation). His name had figured prominently just before Anandiben was chosen to succeed Modi as CM.
On the other hand, angry supporters of Vasava, a veteran tribal leader elected five times to the Lok Sabha from Bharuch constituency, upon his unceremonious exit from the Union Council of Ministers, have threatened to work for carving out a ‘Bhilistan’, a tribal-dominated state like Jharkhand, out of Gujarat and adjoining states. He has claimed that he was made to pay for the ‘pressure’ he was building up in Gujarat and New Delhi for the welfare of tribals. The exit of this senior tribal leader from the Modi Government was sought to be compensated with the induction of another tribal leader, Jaswantsinh Bhabor, BJP MP from Dahod.
If Vasava manages to muster enough support amongst tribals, he may emerge as a headache for the contiguous BJP-run states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (and Chhattisgarh) where a large tribal population exists from which the ‘separate’ state for tribals is sought to be carved out. Together with the simmering Patel anger in the wake of last year’s agitation led by Hardik Patel, the OBC agitation led by Alpesh Thakore, the latest Vasava agitation could cost the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat for a quarter of a century now.
It is to ensure the BJP’s continuous hold on Gandhinagar that the ruling party needs somebody to replace the lacklustre Anandiben regime. Many believe only Amit Shah can bring the BJP back in power comfortably. After all, say some sources, he was already the frontrunner to replace Modi when the latter won India for the BJP in May 2014; Modi, however, ‘persuaded’ a reluctant Shah to let Anandiben become the CM. Now that she has proved “ineffective” as a CM, and also turns 75 in November, Shah is likely to be the “best choice” as her successor, his supporters believe.
And what happens to Shah’s other responsibilities as BJP chief, such as the Assembly elections in UP, next year?
That is the next million dollar question!