Regional parties of South in consolidation mode as BJP vies for a foothold in region

The prospect of a BJP government in Karnataka, which would signal the return of the party, perceived largely as North-centric, to the South, has pushed governments in the southern states ruled by regional parties, into a mode of consolidation.

The sudden and in a way surprising move by the Telangana State Chief Minister, K Chandrasekhara Rao, to express support to the Janata Dal (Secular) led by JD Kumaraswamy, gives strength to this trend. The rush of the 116 JD(S) and Cong(I) legislators to Hyderabad on Friday lends credence to the changed stance of the Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) chief.

After the fractured verdict in Karnataka and the Governor, Vajubhai Vala, giving the single largest party, the BJP, the chance to prove its majority on the floor of the house in 15 days, the 38-member JD(S), supported by the 78-strong Cong(I), are desperately trying to keep their flock together to defeat the machinations of Chief Minister-elect, BS Yeddyurappa, in the crucial test set by the Supreme Court for 4 pm on Saturday.

The southern states, except Kerala, are ruled by regional parties. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, has not only broken his alliance with the BJP, but has turned a strong votary against the Modi Government and BJP in his state. He made every effort to checkmate the BJP in several constituencies in Karnataka by trying to influence the Telugu population there to vote against it in the recent elections.

In Kerala, the CPI(M) Government led by Pinarayi Vijayan has been giving the BJP a ‘run for its money’ and trying to halt its entry into the state. In Tamil Nadu also, the DMK has a stated anti-BJP stance, while the factions of the AIADMK, though they have buried their differences, stand most vulnerable.

The utterances of KCR in support of the regional party, JD(S), assumes significance because of his concerted moves to forge a new front, which he claims will be anti-Cong(I) and anti-BJP. However, as Revanth Reddy, Cong(I) leader and a bitter critic of KCR points out, “He has been meeting only the constituents of the UPA such as TMC, DMK, SP, BSP, and not the NDA constituents including Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and TDP, which recently exited the NDA Government. This has given rise to questions about the role of the front”.

Political analysts have been arguing that KCR has adopted a strategy of “issue-based support to the Narendra Modi Government and tacit political support to the BJP, while targeting the Cong(I) as the main Opposition in Telangana in 2019. This would ensure that the BJP would curb its aspirations for rapid growth. At the same time, the TRS has struck excellent relations with the MIM, which is strong in Hyderabad.

However, a BJP government in Karnataka can alter equations and give a push to the party’s political ambitions. In 2014 BJP President Amit Shah had unveiled a grand plan for the growth of the party across the East, North-East and South, progressively. According to the party, the march into the South starts from Karnataka, and from there to AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, over a defined period.

Giving momentum to this ‘Grand Project’ are the utterances of Amit Shah himself on a visit to Telangana and AP in 2016, when he said the BJP would fight independently in the two Telugu states in 2019 and come to power. The party set in motion a massive membership drive to attract leaders from the TDP and Cong(I) to realise its political ambitions. In May 2017, the BJP unveiled its strategy to annex power in Karnataka and move into the South.

While Chandrababu Naidu has taken the BJP head-on and the CPI(M) is ideologically against it in Kerala, the moves by KCR will be interesting to watch in the coming days. In TN, the meeting of Prime Minister Modi with the DMK patriarch K Karunanidhi recently raised some eyebrows. However, the BJP has been making calculated moves to push its way into the space that is expected to be created by the weakening of the AIADMK following the passing away of the powerful J Jayalalithaa in 2016.

The emergence of cine star Kamal Haasan with his own party and the anticipated role of superstar Rajnikanth have raised excitement in the state and definitely point to a determination to ensure that a national party does not get in. Which, in turn, means the possibility of consolidation of regional parties in the South to keep the BJP and the Cong(I) at bay in 2019.