The fear of return migrants from Saudi Arabia triggering a crisis in the job market and the larger economy back home is just an assumption and not a realistic assessment based on facts.
Too much seems to have been made of the naturalisation drive in the kingdom, says S. Irudaya Rajan, chair professor, Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs Research Unit on International Migration at the Centre for Developmental Studies here.
2008 EXPERIENCE
“I can speak from the experience post-2008 global recession when wild figures were thrown around with respect to numbers in expected reverse migration,” Irudaya Rajan told
The State Government had put out a figure of five lakh people trooping back home. But Irudaya Rajan, a lead researcher in migration and remittance economy, had held ground saying it would not cross 50,000.
In the end, a survey of those who actually landed back home revealed a figure of 45,000. And most of them have managed to find jobs in other destinations.
Not surprising either, he said. Because we are talking about a global village and competitive economies individually looking to grow better than the next, if not the rest.
DRAWING FLAK
“I would be surprised if this purported crisis manages to hold on to attract the headlines beyond a few more days,” he told Business Line .
He drew a parallel to the Shiv Sena-instigated attacks on outsiders employed in Mumbai. Or even the latest issue of human rights violations in Sri Lanka.
Most of these have more to do with their perceived timing with contemporary issues and perspectives than any deep-rooted concerns with respect to actual positions and thought processes.
“I have been drawing flak for speaking my mind and not going to town with the issue,” he said. “Both State and Central Governments (Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs) have looked askance at my nonchalance.”
FINDING JOBS
But this is all about a question of finding jobs. And this is what those feared to return from Saudi Arabia would just go about doing as well.
It would be instructive to know that emigration to Saudi Arabia has been the largest during the three years immediately following the recessionary year of 2008.
“Just this morning I got a mail from Saudi Arabia saying not a single Indian immigrant has been arrested,” Irudaya Rajan said.
Of course, some of the immigrants have shut themselves up at their dwellings for fear of being tracked down. And they might just as well, since they are the ones who are overstaying in the kingdom and who do not have valid documents to show.
MIX-UP OF ISSUES
“And responsible people back home are seeking to mix deportation of those who overstay with return migration. These are entirely two different things,” Irudaya Rajan said.
Even assuming that many of these people are forced to return, there is no cause for panic. There are enough number of jobs waiting back home to engage them.
India is a high-growth market with maximum job potential. A resounding approval of this fact is provided by the fact that five million foreign nationals are working here now, he added.