The Congress hopes to reap a bumper political harvest in the 2014 General and Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections with its decision to carve out a separate State of Telangana.
In one stroke, the party believes it has resurrected its sinking fortunes, marginalised the chances of all its major political opponents and won over the strongest force — the Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS). It is banking heavily on the sentiments of the people and also the assurance by TRS chief K. Chandrasekhara Rao that his party will merge with the Congress), if its single point agenda of a separate Telangana is met.
The 10 districts of Telangana have 17 Lok Sabha seats and account for 119 seats in the 294-member Andhra Pradesh Assembly. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress has 12 seats from Telangana, the TDP and TRS have two each and the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) has one. In the Assembly, the ruling Congress has 49 seats from Telangana, the TDP -34, the TRS - 17, the BJP - 3 and MIM - 7.
The Congress’ main Opposition in the State, the Telugu Desam seems to be the biggest loser. The stand by its leader N. Chandrababu Naidu has not gone down well with the electorate. His silence on the issue the past few days, especially in the face of the fast-paced developments in New Delhi, speaks eloquently of the quandary the party has landed itself in. The YSR Congress led by Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, son of former Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, may also bear the brunt. Its unified Andhra stand is leading to a split within and its influence is certain to be confined to the Seemandhra region.
The BJP, which was hoping to gain political ground promising separate statehood within 24 hours of coming to power, will now have to lend support to the Congress to get the Telangana Bill passed. It can at best wrest some credit for pushing the Congress into a decision and hope to improve its presence.
As for MIM, which was in favour of a united Andhra Pradesh, political exigencies will veer it around to supporting the Congress in the event of a ‘hung’ Lok Sabha.