Telangana and Congress: the politics of it all

With Telangana done, the Congress has started training its guns towards salvaging its political fortunes in Andhra Pradesh, its strongest bastion in the South.

The party has 31 MPs from Andhra Pradesh (12 from Telangana and 19 from Seemandhra) at present.

The immediate task is to maximise the advantage from Telangana, which will have 17 seats post-bifurcation. It can only happen with a merger at best or alliance at worst with the Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS).

TRS chief K Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR) had earlier declared intentions of merging his party, which currently has two seats in the Lok Sabha, with the Congress, if separate statehood came through. The Congress may insist that KCR keep his word, and bargain hard for a merger.

Popularity wave However, this may not be as easy, given the ground reports of a wave in favour of the TRS, seen being as primarily responsible for achieving Telangana following a 13-year struggle.

Also, several leaders want to have a hand in building and shaping up the new State, say TRS leaders. This may in turn translate into a preference for an alliance with the Congress, rather than a merger. If it goes for an alliance, TRS will probably settle for a smaller number of LS seats and higher number of Assembly seats (the State Assembly has 119 seats in the Telangana region, against the total of 294 in Andhra Pradesh). The alliance arrangement has found substance in the recent Rajya Sabha election, when the Congress got K Kesava Rao of the TRS elected to the Upper House.

On the other hand, the Congress has several contenders for the Telangana CM post. K Jana Reddy, C Damodar Raja Narasimha (currently Deputy CM of Andhra Pradesh) and J Geeta Reddy are already vying for the top post, while Union Minister S Jaipal Reddy is also a contender enjoying clout with the high command.

Sending the message The Congress first needs to convince people that Telangana was possible only due to Sonia Gandhi. This would require more coordination and reaching out to people through meetings, giving up internal bickering.

The Congress decision to carve out a new State has expectedly pushed the party into a big crisis.

From being the dominant force in Andhra Pradesh, especially in the LS, it has slipped to the third spot after the TDP and the YSR Congress.

However, with no immediate mass exodus seen after the passage of the Bill, as was widely anticipated, the Congress should take some solace.

Kiran Kumar Reddy, who emerged as the strongest integrationist, has not been able to take away a sizeable number of leaders.

In fact, there is anticipation that leaders such as Botcha Satyanarayana (PCC chief), Kanna Laxminarayana, Raghuveera Reddy, Anan Ramnarayan Reddy or Chiranjeevi may be made CM to try and gain some ground in the remaining period before the general election.

The Congress is pinning hopes on a post-poll tie-up with YS Jaganmohan Reddy, who is expected to gain from the ‘sympathy-cum-popularity’ of the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s six-year rule and popular schemes.

Jagan had positioned himself as the most vocal and strong champion for a united AP, immediately after the July 30 CWC decision.

The Congress can also draw some strength from the support it got from the BJP to pass the Bill. The BJP can make gains in Seemandhra by publicising its role in getting a financial package for the region. However, that can potentially hit the TDP and its chief, N Chandrababu Naidu.

Can the Congress revive its chances in the background of all these emerging developments, or will it stick to its initial arithmetic of adding to the gains of the TRS in Telangana and the YSR Congress in Seemandhra? It will be interesting to wait and watch.