The fiercely contested election in the volatile Rohilkhand region of Uttar Pradesh concludes with polling on Wednesday.
Among the region’s star candidates are Samajwadi Party strongman Azam Khan (Rampur), his ministerial colleague Mehboob Ali (Amroha) and the BJP’s seven-term MLA Suresh Kumar Khanna (Shahjahanpur Sadar). Former Union Minister and prominent Congress face Jitin Prasada is contesting from Tilhar seat in Shahjahanpur.
Dominated by the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the 2012 polls, a majority of the 67 seats in Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Sambhal, Rampur, Bareilly, Amroha, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Khiri, Shahjahanpur and Badaun districts have thrown up triangular contests this time. The SP had won 34 of the 67 seats in the Muslim-dominant districts in 2012. The BSP won 18, the BJP 10 and the Congress three seats in the previous Assembly elections.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), along with ascendant players such as Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, and debutant Asaduddin Owaisi — whose All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Maslimeen has (AIMIM) put up 40 candidates in the State — are vying with each other to wean away the Muslims from the SP’s fold. In the Muslim-dominant districts of Moradabad, Amroha and Sambhal, the SP had won all the Assembly segments. The ruling party has a fight in hand in all these segments this time round.
In Sambhal, for instance, Owaisi’s AIMIM has put up local strongman and several times MP Shafiqur Rehman Barq against incumbent Iqbal Mehmood of the SP. Against allegations of being a “vote- katua (one who splits votes)”, Owaisi, who has been camping in Moradabad for over a week, told BusinessLine that the SP will “learn not to take Muslims for granted in this election”.
“I know I am being called a BJP agent by the SP. But you can’t expect Muslims to be the only ones responsible for keeping the BJP out. The SP and the Congress do the politics of fear to get the Muslim vote and refuse to do anything for their welfare or for the injustices they suffer,” Owaisi told Business Line .
Similarly in Amroha, the SP is fighting a pitched battle with the BSP and the BJP in different Assembly segments. In Amroha seat, for instance, Naushad Engineer of the BSP is a strong contender for the Muslim vote that comprises almost 65 per cent of the 3.10 lakh voters. Sitting MLA and Minister in the Akhilesh Yadav Cabinet Mehboob Ali has become unpopular with a section of his voters owing to his muscleman image.
“The Muslim vote will get split this time. There is the RLD’s Salim Pathan and the BSP’s Naushad Engineer, who are weaning away the SP’s vote. Naushad should have been replaced this time. I am originally a Congress member. But I am not supporting him even though we are allies,” said a local member of the Congress.
Similarly, in Naugaon constituency, sitting MLA Ashfaq Khan of the SP was denied the party ticket in favour of the CM’s acolyte Javed Abidi. Ashfaq has since switched over to the RLD. While he is damaging the SP’s chances, the BJP has fielded former cricketer Chetan Chauhan, who is running a vitriolic and blatantly communal campaign. The BSP, at the same time, has fielded a Jat, Jaidev, who combines Maywati’s traditional Jatav vote with the Jat strength, and is hoping for some Muslim vote.
SP still favourite?However, a number of locals believe that the Muslim vote is unlikely to get divided and the favoured party is still the SP. “Don’t believe everything people tell you around here. The Muslim will vote for the SP-Congress alliance,” said Mohammad Talha, the bright young owner of the famous Gulshan-e-Karim restaurant in Moradabad city.
The unintended beneficiary in these contests to woo the Muslims is the BJP, which heavily depends on reverse polarisation of the Hindu vote in these parts. The party has raised issues of triple talaq, alleged exodus from Kairana and the trusted ability of Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath to run its campaign.
However, the party has lost the support of some communities, and has not attracted new caste groups. And while demonetisation may have demotivated BJP’s core vote, it has not diminished it. The trader community still swears by the BJP, as do the Valmikis among Dalits, and the Sainis and Kurmis among the OBCs. The BJP’s rainbow coalition of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and some Dalit communities is holding on even if it has lost the Jats and the Jatavs to the RLD and the BSP respectively.
And while the BJP is holding on to its support base and Mayawati may be adding some Muslims to her core vote of Jatavs, it is the SP that has the added advantage of a young and popular Chief Minister and a new ally.