Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is headed for a resounding victory in West Bengal. As against 184 seats in 2011 (in coalition with Congress), Trinamool is leading at 212 seats out of 294 at around 3:45 pm this afternoon.

The Congress-Left alliance is leading in 76 seats, down from their combined seat share of 104 in 2011.

The loss goes entirely to Left as Congress is leading in 45 seats, up from 42 seats in 2011. Clearly, they gained out of the alliance with Left Front in 2016. However, the reverse is not true. As against 62 seats in 2011, the CPI(M)-led Left Front is leading in only 31 seats.

As per the seat sharing arrangement, Left was scheduled to contest in 204 seats and Congress in 90. However, inner conflict in both the camps saw Left and Congress contesting in nearly a dozen of seats.

“I am grateful to the people for this huge mandate. They have rejected the opposition,” Banerjee told a news conference. “The alliance was not based on principles and, was a blunder for Congress at the national level,” she said.

Left suffered

According to the Election Commission, Trinamool got 45 per cent votes, up from nearly 40 per cent in 2014 Lok Sabha election.

The alliance got approximately 38 per cent votes (Congress 12 per cent, Left 26 per cent), lower than their combined vote share of 39.64 per cent (Congress 9.69 per cent, Left 29.95 per cent) in 2014.

Apparently, while Left supporters voted in favour of Congress candidates; a section of Congress supporters didn’t support the Left candidates. They either didn’t exercise franchise or went for NOTA (1.5 per cent).

BJP got over 11 per cent and its ally in the Darjeeling hills Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) 0.5 cent votes making the total NDA tally to approximately 11 per cent, down from 17 per cent in 2014.

Theoretically, Trinamool got the benefit of the entire six per cent slide in BJP vote share.

Congress benefitted

Clearly, the alliance worked in Congress’s favour. It is questionable if Congress could retain their bastion in Murshidabad and Malda without the help of Left in this election as Trinamool made massive inroads there.

That the alliance didn’t work is most apparent in the North Bengal districts. The alliance expected to win most of the 76 seats from Murshidabad in mid-Bengal to Cooch Behar at the North.

As results are now coming out, the alliance is leading in only 40 seats. They were routed in the Trinamool stronghold of the South Bengal districts.

According to Biswanath Chakraborty, psephologis and professor of Rabindra Bharati University Trinamool enjoyed the confidence of scheduled castes and triebes and Muslims.

Also majority of the beneficiaries (54 per cent of the electorate) of Banerjee’s dole-economics exercised their franchise in Trinamool’s favour.

Rise of BJP

Though BJP’s position weakened compared to 2014, when they were leading in 24 assembly segments; the party ended up as a gainer winning two seats and was the runner up in a number of seats.

This includes the shock defeat of Congress veteran Gyan Singh Sohanpal in the hands of BJP state president Dilip Ghosh at Kharagpur Sadar in West Midnapore. This is the first time BJP won any seat in the State during state-wide Assembly election.

BJP first won a seat in a by-election in 1999, in coalition with Trinamool. After a gap of 15 years, the party again won a seat, also through by-election in 2014.

Pleased with national media

In her press conference Banerjee accused a section of local media for undue criticism. However, she lauded national media for projecting the right image of development in the state during the last five years.

The government, she said will remain committed to the uplift of the poor and the marginalised. She also promised industrialisation as an agenda.

Major upset for CPM

In a major set back for the Left Front and its alliance partner, Congress, their Chief Minister hopeful, Surjya Kanta Mishra, is said to have lost from his stronghold in Narayangarh in Paschim Medinipur.

Mishra a politburo member and the State Secretary of the CPM was the face of the Cong-Left Alliance.

He is said to have lost to Trinamool's Pradyut Ghosh by a margin of over 13000 votes.

Reactions from the party was not immediately available.

Key Candidates

Apart from Banerjee, outgoing State Finance Minister, Amit Mitra, has secured a lead from Khardah over CPI-M-Congress alliance’s Asim Dasgupta.

Other key minister in Banerjee’s Cabinet like Subrata Mukherjee and Firhad (Bobby) Hakim are also said to be leading from their respective Constituencies.

In Singur, which was the epicentre of Mamata Banerjee’s paribartan (change) call in 2011, the TMC has managed a lead over Alliance candidate, Rabin Deb.

Sources indicate that TMC candidate Sashi Panja is said to have won from the Shyampukur assembly seat. The EC is however, yet to declare the results.

However, outgoing minister, Manish Gupta is said to be trailing to CPI-M-Congress’ Sujon Chakraborty in Jadavpur. In Kamarhati, Madan Mitra – accused in the Saradha scam and who is currently in jail – is also said to be trailing.

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