Twin win is reflection of BJP’s organisational muscle

The BJP’s twin victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh on Monday were a reflection of how the ruling party’s superior organisational muscle and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emotive appeal trounced the Congress’s efforts to focus the campaign entirely on political and economic issues.

The Congress managed to breach the BJP’s fortress in Saurashtra region of Gujarat by underlining the agrarian distress through the dominant farming community, the Patidars.

However, it did not get as much success in its focus against the impact of GST and demonetisation on small and medium businesses in business hubs such as Surat in south Gujarat.

The election result, especially in Surat, is also a testimony to the formidable micro-management skills of BJP President Amit Shah.

Surat is where the Patidars from Saurashtra form the backbone of the local textile and diamond polishing trade.

Following the Patel quota agitation led by Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) in 2015, the BJP lost 22 seats in the Surat Municipal Corporation elections. Its tally came down from 98 to 75 seats in the 115-member corporation. The Congress was the direct beneficiary, raising its tally from 14 to 36 seats.

However, the BJP President intervened directly. Twelve of the sitting MLAs, including a candidate like Nanubhai Vanani who had secured over 1.12 lakh votes in the 2012 elections, were replaced with fresh faces. The result is that the BJP has swept Surat.

Even in hotly contested seats like Varachha Road, a strong candidate like Dhirubhai Gajera of the Congress lost decisively to the BJP’s Kishoribhai Shivabhai Kanani.

The PM’s focus in the second leg of the campaign, especially in central Gujarat, was on emotive issues built around suggestions of a Pakistan-influenced conspiracy to install a Muslim Chief Minister in Gujarat.

This seemed to have worked. The urban seats in south and central Gujarat — whether it was Surat where all the 12 seats went to the BJP or Ahmedabad and Vadodara — the BJP performed exceedingly well.

Of the 21 seats in Ahmedabad district, BJP retained 15. In Vadodara, it won eight of 10 seats.

The total tally of the BJP in central Gujarat improved from 37 in 2012 to 39 this year.

While the BJP performed well in urban areas, it suffered in rural pockets because the sharp agrarian distress was articulated forcefully by Hardik Patel and PAAS. In rural Saurashtra, the BJP’s tally was its lowest since 2002. It was a net gain for the Congress, with almost double seats from its three-time average.

In 2002, the BJP won 37, while the Congress was at 15. In 2007, the BJP tally stood at 38 and that of the Congress reached 14.

After the delimitation of assembly constituencies in 2012, the BJP retained its strong presence the region with 34 seats and the Congress remained at 14.

The 2017 elections brought down the BJP strength to 23 and the Congress tally increased to double at 30 besides one seat going to Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) at Kutiyana in Porbandar. Saurashtra has 11 districts.