Rainfall for the second-most productive month of August is likely to be normal to above-normal for most parts of the country, except East-Central India (East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and parts of Jharkhand in the North and Vidarbha in the South), according to an updated outlook by the Application Laboratory of Jamstec, the Japanese national forecaster.
But the last monsoon month of September may be rainier this year with the entire country likely receiving normal to above normal precipitation except coastal parts of Odisha and adjoining West Bengal. The Application Laboratory based its forecasts on an evolving weak La Nina over the East-Central Pacific and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the immediate neighbourhood.
Likely N-E monsoon trend
Meanwhile, a consolidated outlook for September-October-November (that covers the North-East monsoon) says that most parts of India, except southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, may receive normal to above- normal rains during the autumn. Extended outlook for December-January-February (2020-21) suggests mostly normal winter rains, except in parts of Jammu & Kashmir and the neighbourhood.
This is even as strong monsoon conditions prevail over parts of the West Coast with Gujarat, Konkan and Goa sharing most of the spoils. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast for Saurashtra and Kutch today and tomorrow (Friday and Saturday), India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in the morning. But the heavy rain belt may move north towards the plains of North-West India from tomorrow (Saturday).
Trough on the retreat
Alongside, the eastern end of the monsoon trough is retreating from the waters of the Bay of Bengal to nestle along the foothills of the Himalayas, bringing back heavy rains to East India and North-East, and likely aggravating the landslides/ floods in parts of the region. Extremely heavy rainfall is warned for the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.
The monsoon has so far delivered 10 per cent above normal rainfall, though the quantum of the excess has been trending down after it had entered a weak phase from end June into the first week of July. The IMD has indicated that another weakening phase may be round the corner with the eastern end of the monsoon trough readying to sign off from the Bay of Bengal.
Morning satellite pictures
It is when the eastern end of the trough stays anchored in the Bay waters that low-pressure areas or rudimentary circulations form and move through the trough inland over East India and onward to North-West India dragging in the monsoon flows and rains. But, as mentioned already, the eastern end of the trough is preparing to pull out of the anchor and enter land, signalling where the rains are headed.
Satellite pictures at 11.45 am showed Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch free of clouds but huge cloud banks are waiting out in the North Arabian Sea with the Veraval region likely getting hit first. Mumbai also is mostly clear, while clouds are massing up to farther south from Panaji to Kundapura, Mangaluru, Kannur and Kozhikode (Kerala) and less intense in build-up from Kollam to Thiruvananthapuram.