What colours will the State polls paint on the national canvas?

The results of elections to five State Assemblies will be keenly watched for their potential to set new political trends in the coming months. That Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw himself into the electoral battle, addressing as many as 23 public rallies in Uttar Pradesh alone, points to the criticality of these polls.

A good performance by the BJP will help it replace the Congress as the new natural party of governance.

A BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh, 20 long years after Kalyan Singh rode to power in 1997, will affirm the BJP’s supremacy over all others. If the party that rules the Centre is also successful in forming governments — or even emerging as the single-largest party — in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, it would be the most glorious moment in India’s Hindu nationalist movement, which formally began with the establishment of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in 1925.

For the Congress, the polls are a matter of survival as a serious political player, and a national alternative to the ascendant BJP under Modi. It will also be a final referendum on the leadership of Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi and the continuance of the Gandhis as the party’s ruling dynasty.

The trend that began from its successive losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi was followed by its rout in the Parliamentary polls with a historic low of 44 seats. Losses followed in subsequent Assembly polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Assam.

If the Congress does not manage to snatch Punjab from the Akali-BJP alliance, which has been in power for 10 years, it will justify Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s assertion that it has been reduced to a “fringe player” that may even lose its role as the principal Opposition.

On the other hand, if the Congress manages to secure Punjab, puts up a respectable showing in UP and manages to come to power in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, the Grand Old Party would have signalled its revival and be back in business as a serious political player.

The biggest tectonic shift would be if Arvind Kejriwal manages to steer the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to victory in Punjab and delivers even a few seats in Goa.

Such a result would make the AAP only the fourth party — after the BJP, Congress and the Left — to have governments in more than one State. It would also enhance Kejriwal’s stature in the national consciousness as a possible alternative to Modi.