The split Shiv Sena will face its biggest electoral test next Wednesday and its outcome will determine the face and fortune of the party.

While the party has seen many high level exits in its 58-year- history, Eknath Shinde’s rebellion in 2022 has been the most damaging thus far.

Not only did Shinde walk out with 40 legislators and 13 members of parliament, his faction also secured the Election Commission’s approval to use Shiv Sena name and was allotted its party symbol of bow and arrow.

The two parties - Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) are facing off in a high stakes battle that will decide who rules Maharashtra for next five years.

While Shiv Sena is contesting in 85 seats across the state as a part of the MahaYuti, Sena (UBT) has fielded candidates in 94 seats and is a member of Maha Vikas Agahdi. In Mumbai which is birthplace of Sena and where it holds most sway, Shinde has fielded 16 candidates, while Sena (UBT) is contesting in 22 seats.

The elections in Mahim and Worli will be keenly watched. Sena’s incumbent MLA Sada Sarvankar is seeking re-election from Mahim which will see a triangular contest with Sena (UBT’s) Mahesh Sawant and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray’s son Amit.

In Worli Sena (UBT’s) Aditya Thackeray is contesting against Sena’s Milind Deora. Another interesting fight in adjoining Thane district’s Kopri-Panchpakhadi seat will see Shinde himself take on Kedar Dighe of Sena (UBT). Kedar Dighe is the nephew of Shinde’s mentor Anand Dighe.

“While MLAs and MPs may have deserted us, the grassroot workers are still with Uddhav Thackeray. Block and division level leaders who form the organisational backbone of the party have not quit.

The Marathi-speaking people of Mumbai know that it is Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena which brought them respect and helped them get jobs.

People of Mumbai know the immense work we have carried out in the city. True Shiv Sainiks will not tolerate the betrayal of Eknath Shinde and will continue to support us,” said Harshal Pradhan, spokesperson of Shiv Sena (UBT).

While Shinde may lack the organisational strength of Thackeray faction in Mumbai, his appeal lies in his leadership style. A common grouse against Thackeray was that he did not meet his party leaders. In contrast Shinde is accessible to party workers.

“Whenever there is a calamity Shinde saheb is the first to respond,” Shiv Sena functionary Sanjay Sakpal said referring to Shinde’s visit to landslide hit village in Raigad district last year.

While Sena (UBT) keeps referring to Shinde as a traitor, Shinde- backers point out it is Uddhav who has joined hands with Congress. “Marathi speaking people and Hindus always looked upto to Shiv Sena as its saviour. Will Sena (UBT) be able to take the same hard stance while allying with Congress,” another Shinde supporter asked.

While both parties are promising sops and guarantees, the underlying theme of Sena (UBT) campaign is to build a self-reliant Maharashtra that will never compromise its pride and bow to outsiders (read Modi & Shah).

“After the Lok Sabha elections there was a hype that Maha Vikas Aghadi will win big time in assembly elections. Now that hype has vanished. The Aghadi won Lok Sabha seats only on the basis of a false narrative that the Constitution is in danger. On the other hand the Eknath Shinde government has done tremendous work in the last five six months which includes the launch of Ladki Bahin Yojana,” said Sena’s Sanjay Nirupam who is contesting against Sena (UBT) Sunil Prabhu in Dindoshi.

Nirupam calls Sena (UBT) as a splinter group and says they have lost Marathi votebank. “This was evident when they lost Lok Sabha elections in Thane, Kalyan, Konkan and Marathwada which have been Sena strongholds. Now the party worker allegiance has shifted to Eknath Shinde,” he said.

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