Why are parties delaying their poll campaigns in Kerala?

Hardly two months remain for the State Assembly polls and yet the three main fronts in Kerala are no closer to finalising their candidates or kicking off their campaigns.

Uncertainty and confusion prevail over seat-sharing and candidate selection for the incumbent Congress-led United Democratic Front, the principal Opposition CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Both the UDF and LDF had begun informal seat-sharing discussions after the November elections to the local bodies, which had provided a broad indication of the trajectory of people’s electoral choices. However, weeks after the announcement of the poll schedule by the Election Commission, they are still in a quandary.

The LDF was expected to come out with its seat allocation and candidates’ list earlier than usual. However, parleys between dominant partner CPI(M) and No.2 CPI, is yet to achieve resolution. The CPI insists on 29 seats, two more than what it had contested in 2011. The arrival of Francis George and his followers in the LDF camp after the split of the Kerala Congress (Mani), a UDF partner, has upset the seat arithmetic. George’s party – named Kerala Congress (Democratic) – is eyeing four seats, and the CPI(M) wants the CPI to share this burden.

Anonymous hoardings and posters have appeared in many places questioning the CPI(M)’s selection of candidates. Party men have dared to take out small rallies either opposing the prospective candidates in certain constituencies or recommending alternatives, thus shocking the leadership. This at a time when the party leadership felt it had quelled internal strife by deciding to field VS Achuthanandan very early on – the former Chief Minister had initially been denied a party ticket in 2006 and 2011, causing outrage among a section of the party’s workers.

In the UDF’s case, seat allocation among Congress’ alliance partners as well as among the different ‘groups’ within the party has forever been a time-consuming, gruelling ritual. Bargaining by different pressure groups, caste organisations, religious outfits and lobbies until the closing day of withdrawal of nominations is routine.

However, voices this time around, have been less shrill. The Muslim League, the second-biggest constituent of the front, did not claim more seats, but the Kerala Congress (Mani), despite a vertical split, has asked for more. Other partners too have asked for higher share of seats. Though the rivalries between the Congress’ ‘I’ and ‘A’ groups is relatively mellowed, candidate selection has not reached anywhere near resolution. Seat-sharing is not expected to be sorted out soon.

In the NDA, seat-sharing with Ezhava caste party BDJS had been expected to be a smooth affair, but several rounds of talks have not clinched the deal.

And, within the BJP, the selection of 22 candidates carried out under the strict monitoring of the RSS, has been frozen by the national leadership. A decision on candidates and seat allocation to the BDJS is expected after March 22.