ANALYSIS. Will OPS have the last laugh?

In a way it could be argued that the crisis plaguing the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu now is entirely of Sasikala’s making. Had she not been over-ambitious and grabbed – first the post of General Secretary and then manoeuvred to get elected as the legislature party leader – and getting Chief Minister O Panneerselvam to quit his post, things may have gone smoothly.

The Supreme Court verdict upholding the conviction of Sasikala and two of her relatives would have created a flutter, but not the upheaval that it has. Late CM J Jayalalithaa was the first accused in the case that relates to allegations of corruption in her first term as Chief Minister during 1991-96. The case was registered by the DMK government in 1997, on a complaint filed by politician Subramanian Swamy, then leading the Janata Party.

After several twists and turns, the apex court has upheld the conviction of Jayalalithaa, Sasikala and two others by a trial court in Karnataka.

Founded by popular actor-turned-politician MG Ramachandran, or MGR, in the early 1970s after he was expelled from the DMK, the AIADMK finds itself at the crossroads where it has no charismatic personality to lead it.

Following MGR’s death in 1987, Jayalalithaa, who starred opposite MGR in a number of movies, made a bold bid and wrested control of the party. Unlike now, then, there were a couple of leaders who could have taken over the party’s leadership; since then, Jayalalithaa made sure there was no one of charisma or any standing to take over from her.

Panneerselvam, who stood in for Jayalalithaa twice earlier as chief minister when she had to step down after court rulings, is no mass leader. It was his unflinching loyalty to the party leadership that got him the post after Jayalalithaa’s death in December.

He also realised his position and would not have done anything to rock the boat. In the two months he was CM, Panneerselvam built for himself a reputation of taking everybody along and struck up a good working relationship with the Centre.

It was in such a situation that Sasikala decided to up the ante and make a bid, considered by many to be ill-advised and audacious, to become the chief minister. It should have been smooth sailing for her, but for an unlikely person raising the banner of revolt.

For one who seemed ever ready to genuflect, it must have taken something for Panneerselvam to stand up and speak his mind about how he was humiliated by Sasikala and her family members, and was coerced into submitting his resignation. This, after a high-optic 40-minute meditation at the site where Jayalalithaa was buried. It was Panneerselvam’s biggest political gamble. Now, following the Supreme Court verdict, it seems Panneerselvam made the right move.

Even while she staked her claim to form the government and was waiting for a call from acting Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao, to be sworn in, Sasikala had herded the MLAs to a resort outside Chennai, on the East Coast Road. Panneerselvam, on the other hand, had been working slowly to win over his colleagues and a few of them, including Chairman of the Party presidium E Madhusudhoonan, former Minister C Ponnaiyan, and a handful of ministers, joined him.

The Governor met both Panneerselvam and Sasikala separately last week, but did not reveal his mind. He had sought legal opinion and was obviously aware that the Supreme Court verdict was due any time, and hence did not want to risk facing opprobrium later, if the verdict went against Sasikala and the other accused.

The Sasikala camp, meanwhile, was getting edgy and even held out veiled threats that they could not be patient any longer.

After the verdict, Panneerselvam issued a three-page statement listing out why he did what he did and appealing to his fellow MLAs and others in the party to bury the hatchet, come together again and run the government to carry on the good work of their beloved departed leader “Amma”.

That the party does not have a charismatic leader should be a blessing in disguise for the AIADMK. For, all of them will be equals and the chief minister will, technically, be the first among equals. There will not be any bowing and scraping of ministers and MLAs before the party leader or chief minister, as was the norm when Jayalalithaa was in power. It continued when Sasikala became the party general secretary.

The political uncertainty is far from over with Highways and Public Works Minister K Palaniswami, supposed to be a Sasikala loyalist, being elected leader of the AIADMK Legislature Party and staking his claim to form the government. The AIADMK even expelled Panneerselvam and those who supported him from the primary membership of the party. The Panneerselvam camp is not taking things lying down and the whole affair may end up in a messy court battle.

Watching all these developments and waiting in the wings is the DMK, with its newly-appointed Working President MK Stalin biding his time. Two-thirds of the AIADMK’s MLAs have to leave the party if they are to avoid facing the risk of expulsion for defying the party whip.

Are there going to be new political realignments, or is Tamil Nadu headed for a period of political turmoil and early elections — will be known depending on how things pan out over the next few days.