Rain-soaked Mumbai-Konkan will likely continue to be the favourite whipping boy for furious monsoon flows engineered by an incumbent low-pressure area over land and a successor brewing in the Bay of Bengal.
Various weather models have extended the heavy-to-very-heavy rainfall warning for this region and parts of west coast for the rest of this week and also into the next.
India Met Department has officially joined the watch for a fresh ‘low’ taking shape over northwest Bay of Bengal by Sunday.
On Wednesday, the monsoon has centered into entire east Rajasthan and covered more parts of east Gujarat, Saurashtra and west Rajasthan, an India Met Department update said.
This would leave only the contiguous southwest Rajasthan and northwest and northeast Gujarat, the only areas where it has to gain entry.
But even these areas would be covered during the next two days bringing the rain footprint to the entire geography as the land-based ‘low’ worked away from its latest perch over north Madhya Pradesh.
Its successor would be the handiwork of typhoon Rammasun in South China Sea, which is two days away from hitting Vietnam, the nearest coast to India across the international boundary to the east.
'Low' at work
Back home, the incumbent ‘low’ seemed to be churning away fast and furious to finish its business over mainland India before the successor would drop anchor over the Bay and take charge.
Two low-pressure areas cannot hope to co-exist at any given time even from their disparate bases over land and sea and hope to lord it over monsoon, save under what are considered exceptional conditions.
So, the incumbent ‘low’ may start to weaken once the successor reports in and appropriates to itself the power to dictate terms to the monsoon.
But the incumbent would have left a soaked patch of earth over the west coast, central and adjoining northwest India by the time the successor rolls into place.
Very heavy rain
For instance, the 24 hours ending this morning saw Mumbai and adjoining areas being pulverised by exceptionally heavy rain in line with the trend that was in play for over a week now.
And this trend would continue for the next couple of days even as the fresh ‘low’ pops up over the Bay. As per initial forecasts, this system too is forecast to move west towards central India. This would mean that the rains would not relent in Mumbai and neighbourhood for another week at least.
The rains may relent by Friday (July 25) as the ‘low’ travelling initially west over land might start weakening and also steer itself away to the north-northeast towards Uttar Pradesh, international forecasts indicated.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suspects that another ‘low’ might be triggered over the Bay by then, but this needs to be verified.