India Met Department (IMD) has indicated that there is about 44 per cent probability of maximum temperatures in the ‘core heat wave zone’ being above normal during April to June, making for ‘above-normal heat wave conditions’.

The core heat wave zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Odisha and Telangana.

The zone also covers the the meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The IMD had issued a temperature outlook for the hot weather season of March to May on March 1. On Monday, it followed up by issuing an updated seasonal outlook for average temperatures from April to June.

This was done by using simulations by the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) developed under the Monsoon Mission project, and is based on the initial conditions of March, 2019.

Current observations suggest that weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and latest forecast indicate that these conditions may persist from April to June.

Temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5- to 1 deg Celsius over most of the Met subdivisions except a few from North, North-East, and South India where near normal temperatures are most likely.

Warmer than normal climes may prevail over most of the Met subdivisions from Central India and some from North-West India. Near normal maximum temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions.

Enhanced temperatures are forecast for Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West and East Uttar Pradesh, West and East Rajasthan, West and East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana.

The seasonal average minimum and mean temperatures over West Rajasthan are likely to be above normal by more than 1 Deg Celsius, the IMD said.

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