The South-West monsoon has maintained steady progress along the West Coast of the country a day after its onset was declared over Kerala.
The primary atmospheric features that determine the health of the monsoon system are intact, and the prognosis is that they will continue to remain so during this weekend and into the next.
The offshore trough off the Kerala-Karnataka coast persisted and gave a good account of itself in driving heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
The offshore trough is forecast to be in good shape until June 16, up to which date forecasts are available.
Good spread Rain occurred at most places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. Heavy to very heavy rainfall reports have come in from Vaikom and Enamackel (12 cm each) Piravom (11 cm); and Nilambur and Kakkanadu (10 cm each) in Kerala.
According to the Met, the monsoon covered the whole of Kerala and Tamil Nadu and most parts of Coastal Karnataka on the second day.
Seasonal rains have also entered more parts of South Interior Karnataka, some parts of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The northern limit of the monsoon passed through Honnavar, Anantapur and Ongole. Progression of the monsoon indicates that more areas of the peninsula will come under its footprint in quick time.
Rains are expected to cover the whole of Coastal Karnataka, southern parts of Konkan and Goa, North Interior Karnataka, more parts of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
An outlook from the Thiruvananthapuram Met office said that heavy (7-11 cm) to very heavy (12-20 cm) rainfall is likely at one or two places in Kerala until Friday morning.
Squally weather Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 45-55 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr is likely along and off the Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep until Friday afternoon. Fishermen have been advised to be cautious.
On Thursday, a cyclonic circulation located off the Karnataka-Goa coast was more or less intact.
Global models have put this under close watch for any signs of intensification.
However, a counterpart circulation in the Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts has weakened.
It has been replaced by a fresh circulation over the North Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh, which might help keep the Bay of Bengal ‘arm’ of the monsoon in contention.