The monsoon, which is part of the larger pan-Asian weather system, is gradually coming under the influence of two prevailing storms in the Pacific, and another is in the making.
Active monsoon conditions over India are now confined to West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and to a comparatively much lesser extent over the Indo-Gangetic plains.
RAGING PACIFIC STORMS
The influence on the monsoon of Pacific typhoon Noru, to the south of Japan, and the less intense tropical storm Nesat, to the north of the Philippines, is currently clear from satellite pictures.
While no strip of land is under threat of typhoon Noru, tropical storm Nesat is aiming to hit Taiwan, according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.
The storm-in-the-making is traced to the South China Sea, and initial indications are that it could be headed to the north-east between Taiwan and the Philippines.
But tropical storm Nesat is travelling in the west-northwest, a track for storms in the Pacific that has been often seen in the past as aiding the Indian monsoon, though with a lag.
WEAK MONSOON PHASE?
This results from a remnant of the system travelling further west, though in the instant case, the landfall area over Taiwan and adjacent south-east coast of China may not help this cause.
Meanwhile, the clouds and flows being pulled in by the Pacific storms are forecast to cross Sri Lanka and the south-west coast and southern parts of India before being guided into the Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures this morning showed a huge bank of cloud converging over the Maldives Islands en route to the Kerala coast in South-West India and Sri Lanka to its south.
Any rain being generated in the process would be a god-send for the southern parts of India, which have not received their due share till date even as the monsoon prepares to enter the second half.
Another bank of clouds capable of generating heavy rain hung over the East Bay of Bengal and threatened to wallop Myanmar, Thailand and parts of Indochina.
Net-net, the monsoon over India may go into a weak phase from this weekend, to usher in drier climes over most of the country, except the fringes, from August (Tuesday next).