It’s partly sunny in Thiruvananthapuram this morning after winds wavered from being monsoon-friendly westerly last night to northwesterly.
A couple of thunderstorms are in order later in the morning and the afternoon thanks to the high humidity (or moisture content in the air), say weather models.
But a persisting trough of lower pressure over land, typical of the pre-monsoon thunderstorm regime, has continued to block the progress of the monsoon flows.
Extending from southwest Madhya Pradesh, this trough lay stretched out to interior Karnataka until last night.
Either this trough has to move out, or the westerly/southwesterly monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea have to gather strength and push it out of its bearing for their smooth progress.
What happens next is something that developments during the course of the day will decide, according to monsoon watchers.
Model forecasts continue to suggest that the offshore trough, or a trough based out in the sea stretching along the southwest coast, may strengthen by the evening.
A deeper offshore trough is a good augury for the monsoon, and would mean that the winds would ramp up in speed and become well-oriented for precipitating the rain.