Super typhoon Noru over the North-West Pacific has weakened to a conventional typhoon, but a fresh tropical storm named Nalgae has formed in the neighbourhood.
Forecasts suggest that 'Noru' is racing away west-northwest, skirting the west coast of Japan, to re-intensify into a super typhoon and head into the East China Sea and further away.
DIRECTION OF FLOWS
This would mean that monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal would remain directed into these weather systems for want of one of their own to coax back the flows.
And, now, the monsoon would have to contend with tropical storm Nalgae, though it is not seen as gaining too much strength in the North-West Pacific.
Meanwhile, the India Met Department (IMD) projections show that out-bound flows would hold sway at least until August 5 (Saturday), ruling out any formation of a weather system in its backyard.
The North-West Pacific-bound flows, while negotiating the peninsular tip of India, have triggered isolated moderate to heavy rain over Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the past few days.
This is expected to continue for the time-being and may well sustain into the week ending August 14, according to an outlook from the US Climate Prediction Centre.
WELCOME RELIEF
The rains have already brought welcome relief to areas in and around Kochi in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, which suffer from a serious rain deficit.
According to the US forecaster, these rains could spread to other parts of the South Peninsula next week, prominently along the East Coast - i.e. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Bengal.
This represents the weak phase of the monsoon, when rains retreat to the fringes along the West and East coasts and the foothills of the Himalayas. This was evident from this morning's cloud pattern.
There is also a forecast indicating the formation of a circulation in the Bay of Bengal after the typhoons subside in the North-West Pacific.
But this is expected to largely serve a catchment area extending from the North-East to the East and along the foothills of the Himalayas to North-West India.