A break in strong western disturbance activity will cause day temperatures are expected to rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius over Gujarat and North-West India for the next two days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. However, feeble incoming disturbances may help bring down mercury by as much subsequently.

As of Tuesday, the country as a whole has received twice the normal amount of rain (a surplus of 100 per cent) so far (March 1 to 17) during this pre-monsoon season. The only rain-deficit areas are in the North-East (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura), the Andaman & Nicobar Islands; Tamil Nadu & Puducherry; and South Interior Karnataka.

Three string systems

Day temperatures were above normal by 5.1 degrees Celsius or more over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; by (3.1- 5.0 degrees Celsius) over Konkan & Goa; at isolated places over Saurashtra, Kutch, Assam and Meghalaya. International models now suggest that an expected strong disturbance by next week may fail to materialise. Three strong systems have already visited North-West and Central India dumping excess rainfall at a number of places across the region. The IMD update said that rain or thundershowers broke out yesterday (Monday) at a few places over Arunachal Pradesh and at isolated places over VIdarbha, Chhattisgarh, plains of West Bengal, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, South Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala.

Trough from South

A trough (an elongated area of lower pressure) runs from North Tamil Nadu to East Vidarbha across Rayalaseema and Telangana. A prevailing cyclonic circulation over South Chhattisgarh has merged with the trough while another cyclonic circulation lies over North Coastal Odisha. The cyclonic circulation is capable of fanning moisture mopped up from the Bay of Bengal into the trough while westerlies from the opposite side mix in, inducing instability in the atmosphere and triggering thunderstorms, rain, high winds and lighting.

Numerical predictions

International numerical weather models indicated that the next 24 hours (into Wednesday) may precipitate rainfall of up to two cm at Bhadrak, Balasore, and Nuagam-Kulagada-Pattapur, Rayagada (Odisha); Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Salur, Araku Valley, and Narsipatnam (Andhra Pradesh); Nagpur, Bhandara, Pusad, Hingoli, Umarkhed, Nanded and Chincholi (Maharashtra); Kohir and Zahirabad (Telangana); Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary (Goa); Belgaum, Bidi, Londa, Haliyal, Nandeli, Yellapur, Anshi National Park, Siddapur, Talaguppa, Sharavati Valley WIldlife Sanctuary, Humcha, Thirthahalli, Agumbe, Koppa and Sringeri (Karnataka). Rest of the places in East and Peninsular India can expect light showers. The IMD outlook said that isolated rain and thunderstorm accompanied with lightning is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on march 20 and 21. Light isolated rainfall/snowfall is likely over the hills of North-West India from today (March 17) to March 20, with scattered rain on March 21.

To the East, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is forecast over Odisha and Jharkhand from March 19 to 21; isolated to scattered rain over West Bengal & Sikkim during the same period; and over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha from today to March 21. Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning/hail/gusty winds is likely over Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during March 17-21; over East Madhya Pradesh during March 18-20.

Thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty winds is likely also over plains of West Bengal and Jharkhand on March 19 and 20 and over Odisha from March 18 to 21.

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