The rain deficit for India as a whole remains unchanged at four per cent as of yesterday (Saturday) but with 10 days to go and at least two rain-generating cyclonic circulations expected to cross coast from the Bay of Bengal, the shortfall could get covered to a good extent.
The highest individual deficits in meteorological subdivisions are now below 30 per cent except in Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripur (31 per cent), India Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics say. Next highest is in Gujarat (29 per cent) and Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh (28 per cent).
Existing 'low' to weaken
West Uttar Pradesh (21 per cent) is next, as also 'normal' subdivisions (deficit of 20 per cent or below) of Kerala and Mahe (17 per cent); East Madhya Pradesh (16 per cent); Punjab and Himachal Pradesh (14 per cent each); Odisha (12 per cent); and Coastal Karnataka (10 per cent). Some of these also fall under the emerging footprint of the two incoming circulations and may make smart rain gains.
In tandem with the first of these circulations, an existing low-pressure area lying over the central parts of East Rajasthan and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh is waiting out its time to weaken and sign off. It is likely to weaken and become 'less marked' by tonight (Sunday), the IMD said. But it would leave behind a productive remnant circulation that is expected to hang in there for next two-three days.
Projected rainy corridor
Meanwhile, the incoming circulation on Sunday lay over North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal and is expected to move towards the Odisha-West Bengal coast. Its projected path will take it over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh before likely merging with the remnant circulation there.
In the process, it will generate moderate to heavy rain across even as a second cyclonic circulation moves in from South China Sea-Indochina into the Bay of Bengal and crosses the territorial waters towards the Andhra Pradesh coast towards the month-end (around September 27).
Second Bay circulation
The IMD has said on Sunday morning that the western parts of the all-important monsoon trough over land lie south of its normal position and its eastern end near the normal position. It is likely to continue with near similar orientation during next 3-4 days, supporting the overall rain regime.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Gujarat State, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over East Rajasthan today; over East Gujarat till Monday; and West Madhya Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday.
Rain for Gujarat, East MP
Isolated heavy falls are likely over West Madhya Pradesh on Sunday and Wednesday; East Madhya Pradesh until Wednesday; Saurashtra and Kutch during Monday to Wednesday and East Gujarat Region Tuesday. These are currently rain-deficit, especially East Gujarat and East Madhya Pradesh.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Uttarakhand until Wednesday and over the rain-deficit Himachal Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over the rest of North-West India for next five days.
Towards the East, rains are likely to increase over Odisha (rain-deficit) and plains of West Bengal with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and isolated heavy falls on Sunday and Monday.