US forecasting agencies are of the view that the monsoon would make its progress in the East and adjoining east-central India from mid-June.
This is despite prospects of an early-season cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea.
The rain will be heavy to very heavy over the West Coast during this week and increasingly so in the next, according to these forecasts.
But East and North-East India, especially Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, southeast Madhya Pradesh and east Bihar, would get rain during the week starting June 14.
Normally, the outlook for a monsoon depression/cyclone in the onset phase is seen as a distraction for monsoon flows heading towards India.
This is especially so in the case of an away-going system, as is the case with the latest which is forecast to go away west-northwest towards Oman.
It would have come within sniffing distance of the Mumbai-South Gujarat coast during the next couple of days before veering outwards back into the high seas.
All available indications this morning suggest that the causative low-pressure area may have already developed over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
This is forecast to undergo rapid intensification in the very warm waters and move north along the west coast towards Mumbai-South Gujarat.
In the process, it leave behind a remnant system off the Kerala-Karnataka coast that would act as a rallying point for some of the monsoon flows directed into the parent system.
The sibling will act as a separate rain-head and hit the Karnataka-Konkan coast, pounding it with heavy rain later during this week and into the next, US agencies say.
In the meantime, some of the feverish activity would have triggered a response across the peninsula from the Bay of Bengal.
A likely low-pressure area is indicated in that basin but in all likelihood headed towards Myanmar. This is what is forecast to guide the monsoon southeasterlies into east India.