The India Met Department (IMD) has joined the outlook for a fresh low-pressure area likely developing over North-West and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal (off Odisha coast) by the weekend.
The ‘low’ is expected to help increase rainfall activity over peninsular and central India, the Met said on Monday afternoon.
This would mostly coincide with the landfall and subsequent weakening of North Pacific super typhoon Neoguri over Japan.
The monsoon could not make much progress over the past few days given the dominating presence of Neoguri within the larger Asian monsoon system.
Rush of flows
But on Monday, the rush of flows from Arabian Sea across the southern Indian peninsula and directed into Neoguri had dropped rain over parts of the region.
This is expected to continue for a couple of days. It has helped the monsoon announce its arrival over most parts of Vidarbha and Aurangabad in Maharashtra. The monsoon has also entered parts of west Madhya Pradesh and entire east Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh; and more parts of northern Rajasthan.
Its northern limit continued to pass through Veraval and Surat (extreme south Gujarat); Nasik and Aurangabad (Maharashtra); Bhopal and Shivpuri (Madhya Pradesh); and Alwar and Bikaner (Rajasthan).
Regions not covered by the monsoon yet are West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and West Rajasthan. The emerging ‘low’ is expected to make positive change in the scenario from the weekend.
The Met has forecast rain also at many places for North-East and East India and along the West Coast.
Heavy in UP
The existing ‘low’ over east Uttar Pradesh has brought some very heavy to extremely heavy rain in the region and adjoining Bihar during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.
The ‘low’ is embedded in a trough that connects Punjab with the north-east of the country, not the Bay of Bengal. Given the lack of direct moisture supply, it is expected to start weakening from Tuesday.
The trough will realign itself to dip back into the Bay of Bengal with the formation of the fresh ‘low’ which will show up over land along the Odisha coast and drive rains into central India as well.
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana and northern half of Seemandhra may benefit along with the West Coast.