Coastal Andhra Pradesh and neigbouring North Tamil Nadu and Odisha will receive most of the rains over the next couple of days generated by a well-marked low-pressure area over Central and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures on Tuesday evening showed clouds spread out from Chennai to Nellore, Kakinada, Visakhapatnam, Brahmapur, Puri and Bhubaneshwar.
Heavier clouds waited at some distance out into the sea.
It is widely expected that the Bay of Bengal would slip into a lull phase later, with the next positive buzz not developing anywhere until mid-week next week.
The intervening phase will see some rain filtering into the interior of the South Peninsula from the moisture left over behind by the current well-marked ‘low.’
Wind-field projections put out by the IMD point to the possibility of a weather-altering system forming in the South-East Bay and the adjoining Andaman Sea by November 23.
System behaviour The US Climate Prediction Centre has expressed doubts over whether the system can hold to itself for long, with its prediction suggesting that it might break up soon after.
The core of the system might head to straight to the North (towards Bengal coast) but a break-away part is shown as making its way towards the Tamil Nadu coast.
The India Met Department (IMD) disagrees, suggesting that the circulation may wind down to South before making the move west towards the coast. Only, it would be headed towards Sri Lanka, likely skirting the Tamil Nadu coast.
Some spill-over rain may direct its way into adjoining South-East and South Tamil Nadu in early wind-field projections given out by the IMD.
Showers for North Meanwhile, an incoming western disturbance was parked over East Afghanistan this evening, with an offspring circulation having crossed into Central Pakistan and West Rajasthan.
It is expected that the winds associated with the parent-offspring combo and rain/thundershowers triggered by them would effectively deal with the choking smog over North-West India.
During winter, the parent pushes in cooler north-westerlies from the Arctic while the offspring blows westerly winds which dip over the nearby ocean (North Arabian Sea) to mop up moisture.
This is precipitated in rain/thundershowers.
Western disturbances are low-pressure waves originating from the Mediterranean Sea and travelling periodically east across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan before checking into North India to consolidate winter climes.
Depending on their strength and potency, some delve deep into the South to influence the North-East monsoon, meet up with the easterlies, and set up interactive rain over the peninsula and Central India.