ANALYSIS. Sans Modi, BJP’s base in Gujarat is falling apart

When Narendra Modi, who ruled Gujarat with an iron hand from October 2001 to May 2014, left for New Delhi as Prime Minister, few imagined that the edifice of his ‘vibrant laboratory’ would begin to crack within two years.

That the ghosts of caste system — seemed to have been buried by the Hindutva tide — would make the BJP’s support base brittle, even as Gujarat hurtles to the next Assembly elections in 2017.

Even fewer imagined that a virtually defunct Congress would be able to gather thousands of people in front of the Vidhan Sabha here, forcing the BJP government to close the Assembly gates and ratify the GST Bill only after evicting all 44 Congress MLAs protesting atrocities against Dalits.

But that has indeed happened.

Exactly a year ago, Hardik Patel, all of 22, addressed a million-strong-crowd in Ahmedabad to demand reservation in jobs and educational institutions for his Patidar community.

Even Modi had been unable to attract such a massive crowd anywhere.

The prosperous, upwardly mobile and highly influential Patidars (Patels), who comprise around 15 per cent of the State’s population, had been the most vocal supporters of the BJP since the early 1990s.

Curiously, for the first time they are demanding OBC status — apparently taking a cue from Modi himself, who had, also for the first time, publicised his OBC status in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The bona fide OBCs were perturbed as they suspected the Patidars were out to eat into their pie. They launched counter-agitations against any such move. In fact, at 40 per cent, OBCs form the biggest chunk of population in Gujarat — and they too had been solidly supporting the BJP earlier.

They often worked as the BJP’s foot soldiers, a fact borne by the number of convicts from this group for their alleged involvement in the 2002 post-Godhra communal riots.

Even as the Patels vs OBC agitations brewed, the Una incident of July 11 came as another big shock. Some Dalit youths were thrashed by cow vigilantes, triggering nationwide outrage.

Dalits, who form 7-8 per cent of the population, had largely migrated from the Congress to the BJP over the years but remained marginalised as ever, like the tribals (15 per cent of population). Joining them in a massive march on August 12 was Ashok Parmar, a Dalit cobbler of Ahmedabad with the dubious distinction of being the “face of the 2002 Hindutva rioters”.

This, apparently, confirmed the community’s disillusionment with the BJP. It was the proverbial last straw, particularly as then CM Anandiben Patel failed to visit Una for almost a week!

Anandiben, the State’s first woman CM, tried to stem the anti-BJP tide.

She even tried to provide a regime “different” from that of Modi by introducing ‘freedom for all’ in her office and outside, and by coining the phrase “Gatisheel Gujarat” (Dynamic Gujarat), a la Modi’s “Vibrant Gujarat”.

But her efforts did not bear fruit, and the party decided to replace her with Vijay Rupani.

Clearly, the Patels, led by Hardik, and the OBCs, led by Alphesh Thakore, besides the Dalits, have made the life of the ruling party miserable. Even senior Patel leaders are facing the ‘Hardik’ trouble, becoming unpopular in their own community — so much so that some of them were unceremoniously axed by Rupani in early August.

Although Rupani’s mentor, BJP chief Amit Shah, is trying to cobble together the frayed and dispirited party with fresh caste permutations and combinations (the new Assembly Speaker Ramanlal Vora is a Dalit and State BJP president Jitubhai Vaghani is a Patel), it remains to be seen how far his efforts will click in the polls.

For now, it is interesting to know that Modi, an OBC leader, comes from the 40 per cent OBC population of Gujarat whereas Rupani, a Jain leader, represents a 1 per cent minority community.

Meawhile, AAP is busy fishing in troubled waters.

Party leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal was among the first to visit Una to meet the Dalit victims.