Signature ‘low’ in Bay will rev up monsoon next week

The monsoon is expected to stir itself up to true potential with a signature monsoon low-pressure area bursting into activity over the Head Bay of Bengal next week.

A ‘low’ forming over the Head Bay, which is partly over sea and partly over Gangetic West Bengal coast, has great significance attached to it in terms monsoon performance over the country.

Crucial ‘low’ The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the ‘low’ moving along a west-northwest course over land, which is the best that monsoon watchers could have asked for.

This would mean that the ‘low’ would spin away like a flywheel to the east and hopefully to northwest India and do what it knows best – pull in the monsoon rains over the country’s parched farming heartland.

The European Centre sees the ‘low’ sitting pretty over Bihar and adjoining Uttar Pradesh by June 23 firmly ensconced in the crucially important monsoon trough connecting North-West and South-East India.

Monsoon cover This trough is the major monsoon enabler for this part of the country just as the offshore trough along the west coast decides the strength of the monsoon over peninsular and central India. Gujarat and the whole of central India will have been brought under monsoon cover by this time. It the trend were to hold, even the national capital of Delhi could hope for the rain by the month-end.

This gels with the known itinerary of the monsoon, which would have made up for its delayed onset and progress from the south and east of the country.

What lends support to this outlook is the initiation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over east-central Bay of Bengal on Friday, as reported by India Met Department.

Arabian Sea turn A few models projected it as drifting towards Myanmar, but not before making a material difference in the way of winds would prevail from the Bay – monsoon-friendly south-easterly.

This is what will go to ultimately initiate the ‘low’ in the Head Bay.

Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea is also seemingly turning monsoon-friendly with cyclone Nanauk weakening and sending back a remnant ‘low’ towards Gujarat and Mumbai.

This fugitive ‘low’ will progressively merge into the monsoon trough growing inland from the Head Bay and piloted by the ‘low’ from there.

Together, they are expected to drive monsoon to peak activity from midweek next week, forecasts suggest.