In Maharashtra politics, it’s less about relationships and more about “situationships.” Political parties that clashed fiercely during the polls are now leaving no stone unturned to explore post-poll alliances in their quest for power. 

With exit polls offering mixed signals, all major parties have directed their MLAs to stay in Mumbai, where luxury hotels are being booked to prevent potential poaching. Political analysts foresee a likely realignment of alliances if no single coalition secures a clear majority. Meanwhile, smaller parties have made their stance clear—they are ready to align with anyone willing to offer them a share in power.

With the ruling Mahayuti alliance—comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction)—confident of returning to power, preparations for alternative strategies are already underway in case the alliance falls short of the majority mark of 145 in the 288-member Assembly.

Senior BJP leaders convened at Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ Mumbai residence to discuss the next steps. While Fadnavis expressed confidence that the BJP-led Mahayuti would secure a majority, sources revealed that contingency plans are being made to rope in independent MLAs and smaller parties. Some BJP leaders have reportedly been tasked with contacting potential allies to bolster their numbers if required.

MVA strategy

On the other side, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition—comprising the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction)—is also preparing for post-poll negotiations. Congress leaders met in Mumbai, where senior leader Balasaheb Thorat expressed optimism about the MVA securing a majority. Simultaneously, NCP chief Sharad Pawar hosted MVA leaders at his residence to strategize further.

Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) leader Sanjay Raut was equally confident, asserting, “Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will win 160 seats and form the government. We will get support from the Peasants and Workers Party, Left parties, and the Samajwadi Party. Some independents have expressed support to us. But BJP and its alliance have been luring independents with money,” he told the media.

Smaller parties kingmaker?

Meanwhile, smaller parties are emerging as potential kingmakers. Mahadev Jankar, president of the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, stated, “Small parties will be kingmakers.” Prakash Ambedkar of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi posted on X, “If VBA gets the numbers tomorrow to support a party or an alliance to form the government in Maharashtra, we will choose to be with one who can form the government. We will choose power!”

The uncertainty around alliances stems from the 2019 post-poll scenario, where the BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways despite being pre-poll partners, leading to the formation of new alliances. This time, similar doubts loom large over the stability of pre-poll alliances.

In the ruling Mahayuti, leadership ambitions could further complicate matters. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis are all contenders for the top post. If internal dissatisfaction arises, the opposition may exploit it to their advantage. In the MVA, however, the formula for leadership is clear. NCP leader Sharad Pawar has stated that the party winning the maximum seats within the coalition will claim the Chief Minister’s position.