The US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has launched a project to create 36-hour forecasts of incoming energy from the sun for solar power plants.
The research team is designing a prototype system to forecast sunlight and the resulting power every 15 minutes over specific solar facilities.
CLOUD PREDICTIONS
This would enable utilities to continuously anticipate the amount of solar energy available.
The work will draw on techniques in use at leading Government labs and universities and in partnership with utilities, energy companies and commercial forecast providers.
Much of the focus would be on generating detailed predictions of clouds and atmospheric particles that can reduce incoming energy from the sun.
These detailed cloud and irradiance forecasts are a vital step in using more energy from the sun, said Sue Ellen Haupt, Director of NCAR Weather Systems and Assessment Programme and the lead researcher on the solar energy project.
The project takes aim at one of the greatest challenges in meteorology: accurately predicting cloud cover over specific areas.
IMPROVING ACCURACY
In addition to helping utilities tap solar energy more effectively, detailed cloud predictions can also improve the accuracy of shorter-term weather forecasts.
The project expands the NCAR focus on renewable energy. It also creates advanced prediction capabilities to enable wind farm developers to anticipate wind energy potential anywhere in the world.
“Improving forecasts for renewable energy from the sun produces a major return on investment for society,” said Thomas Bogdan, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation.
“By helping utilities produce energy more efficiently from the sun, we can make this market more cost competitive,” he added.