India’s thermal coal imports declined on an annual basis for the second consecutive month in October 2024, primarily due to decline in power demand compared to the higher consumption during the summer months.

According to Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider, India’s thermal coal imports, largely utilised by the power sector, plunged by almost 33 per cent y-o-y to 12.77 million tonnes (mt) last month. Month-on-month, the inbound shipments were largely flat.

However, October marked the the second consecutive month of growth in imports on a monthly basis.

India’s thermal coal imports fell on an annual basis for the second consecutive month in October, dropping by 6.19 mt from the multi-year high recorded in October 2023 to 12.77 mt, Alexis Ellender, Major Dry Bulks Analyst at Kpler, told businessline.

Besides, a major uptick in inbound cargoes are not expected in November and December this year.

“We are not expecting any significant upturn in imports in the short-term owing to weak power sector appetite and an improving domestic supply situation in the country. Firm industrial activity suggests power demand will hold steady through November and December, but a steep increase in power sector coal demand is unlikely unless there is a significant variance in temperatures or supply-side disruptions,” Ellender pointed out.

During October this year, India’s coal production reached 84.45 mt, registering an increase of 7.48 per cent. Coal production from captive and other entities rose to 16.59 mt, clocking a growth rate of 41.75 per cent on an annual basis. Cumulatively, coal production for FY25 up to October 2024 reached 537.45 mt, an increase of 6.10 per cent y-o-y.

Coal dispatches in October 2024 rose by 4.6 per cent y-o-y to 82.89 mt. Dispatches from captive and other entities also grew by 36.83 per cent y-o-y to 16.18 mt. The cumulative coal dispatch (up to October 2024) rose by 5.52 per cent y-o-y to 571.39 mt.

“Coal stocks at Indian power plants have decreased in recent months due to lower domestic production during the monsoon season. However, with lower rainfall, production should now be able to recover. This higher domestic availability will cap import demand as power plants are supplied by domestic mines,” Ellender explained.

India’s overall power consumption in October 2024 stood at a little over 140 billion units (BU), a marginal growth on an annual basis. However, thermal power generation fell by 2.71 per cent y-o-y to 114.08 BU during the month. Cumulative power generation from all sources rose by 0.9 per cent y-o-y to 149.90 BU.

From April to October in FY25, thermal power generation rose by 4.23 per cent y-o-y to 804.25 BU. Cumulative production was up by 5.29 per cent to 1,102.49 BU.