Northwest Pacific typhoon Rammasun has barrelled into the Philippines this noon as a category-2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity.
Rammasun is far from being finished as normally happens with a storm on making landfall; instead it will enter South China Sea and churn up into a stronger category-3 typhoon.
It is then forecast to make a second landfall over Vietnam over the next two to three days, and also expectedly toss in a remnant circulation over Mynamar into the Bay of Bengal.
This afternoon, a churn in the air was visible over northwest Bay of Bengal ahead of the formation of what looks like the next fresh low-pressure area.
An India Met Department bulletin identified this as a preparatory upper air circulation that would descend to lower levels in the atmosphere to set up the ‘low.
Peer models also pointed to the formation of the ‘low’ by Sunday, which set off another spell of rain for east and northwest India.
Busy monsoon
This is even as a resident ‘low’ over Odisha moving west-northwest is already working up moderate to heavy rainfall in the region.
The monsoon would keep itself busy over east and northwest India during this phase and sustain the peak level performance it has managed to attain over the past week or so.
Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation has been doing the rounds over northeast Arabian Sea close to the Gujarat coast.
Its behaviour would bear some watching for signs of initiation as a ‘low’ given the strong monsoon flows supportive offshore trough that extends flat out to the south right down to Kerala.
Heavy rain for UP
Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh are the regions in the farming heartland expected to receive heavy to very heavy regions during this week.
During next week, a core of the heavy rain regime would move north to west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, and adjoining foothills of the Himalayas.
Towards the southern part of India, it is likely that the heavy rain regime relents and confines itself to largely the west coast during the emerging phase of the monsoon.