Typhoon Rammasun is currently roaring its way across the waters of the South China Sea and is poised to make back-to-back landfalls over Hainan Island in China and later on the Vietnamese coast.
It had announced its arrival over the Philippine archipelago yesterday afternoon and weakened in the process.
But once it slips into the neighbouring South China Sea, it would re-intensify into an even stronger storm, according to international forecasts.
Rammasun will ramp up to a category-3 typhoon as measured by the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity. It is forecast to scythe through Haikou, capital of Hainan province of China, by Friday morning.
The typhoon would retain category-3 status as it steps out next into the Gulf of Tonkin, part of the South China Sea and to the west of Hainan, but weaken a notch ahead of tearing into the Vietnamese coast the next morning.
‘Recce’ of Bay
Meanwhile, Rammasun would have carried out the required ‘recce’ of the Bay of Bengal, the nearest water body next to the west across Myanmar, to send in an offspring circulation.
The impact is already showing up in the air over northwest Bay of Bengal where an upper air circulation has set up a perch in anticipation since yesterday.
This circulation would glide down to lower levels to initiate formation of a fresh low-pressure area even as an incumbent has shifted base to east Madhya Pradesh this morning from where it is driving the monsoon currently.
Soaked Mumbai
To the west, an upper air circulation has persisted over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat coast, which would bring rain not only to parched Gujarat but also an already soaked Konkan-Goa, including Mumbai.
The moderate to heavy rain will continue for a couple of days more, even as the circulation currently over northwest Bay gets down to work, sets up the ‘low’ and gets a move straight to the west.
This would bring it towards central Madhya Pradesh by Tuesday next; its lateral movement from the Odisha coast from Sunday would trigger a fresh round of rainfall over the west coast, including Mumbai.
Given this outlook, the Konkan coast and Mumbai would be well-advised to keep their guard up for what looks like a flooding round of rain even into next week.