The State that scripted the BJP’s uninterrupted reign at the Centre for two terms brought the saffron party below the majority mark on Tuesday. A number of factors combined to thwart the BJP’s carefully-crafted strategy in Uttar Pradesh and the prime among them was the reverse social engineering attempted by saffron party’s main challenger – Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav.

Till results last came in, the BJP had either won or leading in 33 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the State, a drop of 29 seats from the 62 seats it had got in 2019. The SP-Congress alliance was set to win 42 seats in the politically most crucial State in the country. The BJP’s ally RLD was set to win two seats.

The strategic move

Taking advantage of the virtual collapse of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Yadav adopted the BJP’s “non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit” social combination into his ticket distribution strategy. Yadav strategically broadened the SP’s social base by distributing tickets in a big way to non-Yadav OBCs like Kurmis, Kushwaha, Maurya, Pal, Bind, Nishad and other most backward OBC and even Dalits in non-reserved seats and this has paid off. This is the section which had voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in 2014 and 2019.

This time, the fear of the BJP tinkering with the Constitution has made them shift to the INDIA bloc. SP broke the previous perception of being an MY (Muslim-Yadav) party by giving tickets to only 4 Muslims and 5 Yadavs. The SP-Congress alliance also largely ensured the consolidation of Muslim votes ensuring such a result.

By giving them a Lion’s Share of the SP’s seats, Yadav gave INDIA bloc a handsome victory in UP and took full advantage of the BSP’s virtual collapse. Mayawati-led BSP has not been able to win a single seat in the Hindi heartland state and its vote share has shrunk to a measly 2.05 per cent till results last came in. It is a decisive end of the road for the party which once represented the Dalits and Bahujans.

Till results last came in on Tuesday, SP had already won 18 seats and was leading in 19 in UP.

Simultaneously, the INDIA bloc campaign was ideologically focused on saving the Constitution and a host of issues which touch the everyday life of the common people – rampant unemployment, rising inflation, menace of stray cattle’s, examination paper leaks and farmers’ distress.

Another factor for the dismal performance of the BJP was the failure of ideological issues, especially the Ram temple consecration, in bringing electoral gains for the saffron party. This is best illustrated in the defeat of the BJP in Ayodhya (Faizabad), the epicenter of the Mandir movement.

During the first phase of polling, the BJP’s campaign had focused on peripherally on the Ram Mandir but stressed on the “Viksit Bharat” narrative and development issues.

Divisive campaign

However, after the first phase for the BJP in UP, PM Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath changed track. The ‘Viksit bharat’ narrative was replaced by a strident campaign concentrating on ridiculing the Congress party’s manifesto of having shades of Muslim League, describing Muslims as intruders who produce many children, charging the INDIA bloc of giving reservation to Muslims of their intent of snatching away the property of Hindus and even mangalsutras and buffaloes. Viksit Bharat was completely dropped.

But the divisive campaign has evidently not helped. PM Modi himself has won by a margin of barely 1.52 lakh votes in Varanasi, a significant lowering of his victory margin of 4.79 lakh in 2019.

Another significant defeat is that of senior leader Smriti Irani in Amethi.

(The writer is an independent journalist)

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