For the telecom sector, 2014 would be a year of intense activity. The year will start with the next round of spectrum auctions on January 23. While the regulatory mist may evaporate, the sector would miss the one-billion subscriber mark.
“If the spectrum auction happens next month, we expect it would lead to consolidation in the telecom industry. The sector is in a bullish sphere, especially for Bharti Airtel with the expected sale of its Sri Lankan operations and turnaround of South African business,” said Kishor P. Ostwal, chairman and managing director at brokerage firm CNI Research.
Earlier this month, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), the telecom licensor, has invited applications for the proposed spectrum auctions. With many licences coming for renewal, the industry expects to witness a number of acquisitions during the year.
Loop Mobile, Mumbai’s longest serving telecom operator, is in talks with investors to raise funds for renewing its licence in November 2014. Vodafone India had also sought extensions for three telecom licences — Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata — expiring in November 2014. This year was one littered with arbitrations, penalties and fines, but the mist is likely to disappear in 2014.
“For 2014, we see positive steps that would streamline the regulatory and legal landscape… While we may not expect any more new entrants, additional clarity may bring new investments and action into the sector,” said Mohammad Chowdhury, leader-telecom at PwC India, echoing industry sentiment.
DATA HUNGRY INDUSTRY Consumption of data across 2G, 3G, fixed broadband and 4G would grow in 2014 and Wi-Fi rollouts by major operators may facilitate data growth.
“Challenges remain with introducing localised content en masse, but with smart phone penetration rising and network quality set to improve, many of the requirements for data growth are being met,” Chowdhury added.
This would be also the year of Social Media, Analytics and Cloud (SMAC), and telecom operators would attempt to integrate services more closely with social platforms.
According to V.V.R. Kishore, vice president, engineering and big data analytics at Roamware, 2014 would be the year of Big Data in the telecom world.
“We see this as an unquestionable, dominant trend. Operators will look to use Big Data technologies such as Streams computing and Hadoop to combine varied types of data with intelligent algorithms,” Kishore said.
These would help them generate rich subscriber profiles, offer location based advertising, detect and convert silent roamers and determine cause of network congestion among others.
“The challenge foreseen would be to address and fulfill the ever-increasing data demands of the next 150 million Internet users,” Hon Kit Lam, Vice President, International transmission and IP services at Tata Communications said.
One BILLION MARK “However, it might be practically difficult to achieve the 1 billion subscriber mark in 2014 as well, considering the overall focus on quality acquisitions and conversion of existing data subscribers to 3G and 4G services,” said Jaideep Ghosh, Partner, KPMG Advisory Services.
Telecom companies would be wary of policy changes in 2014, as they may serve as the next game-changer or the deterrent for the telecom sector, Ghosh added.
“I expect global and Indian telecom operators to invest significantly in deploying optic fibre solutions in metro and access areas. The launch of Reliance Jio Infocomm’s 4G services in 2014 will significantly alter the competition landscape of both the voice and data market in India,” Ankit Agarwal, global head-telecom products at Sterlite Technologies said.
According to Ludwig Schulze, chief executive officer at Mistral Mobile, the industry would witness broader traction of mobile money schemes driven by mobile operators and banks.
“Government payments will become gradually more common and an important force in driving the adoption and usage of mobile-based financial services offerings around the country,” he added.
For the industry, circa 2014 seems to be better one, at least in terms of growth.