Moderate to isolated rain would likely continue in the South Peninsula (states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry) early into October even as the monsoon exits the North-West of the country.
An India Met Department (IMD) update said this morning that the monsoon is set to start withdrawing from the border areas of Kutch, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.
‘UNSTABLE WEATHER’
But the withdrawing monsoon could wag its tail in the South and East of the country, the IMD said, supported by global model forecast available last night.
Two potential weather-making circulations persist over the Bay of Bengal, holding one end of a ‘shear zone’’ of monsoon turbulence that cuts across the peninsula into the Arabian Sea across Chennai, North Tamil Nadu and North Interior Karnataka.
These areas and neighbourhood suggest themselves as likely areas to come under associated 'unstable' weather (windy and showery weather accompanied by thunder).
The circulations in the Bay are shown to merge and get pushed north-northeast along the East Coast towards East-Central India by northerly to north-westerly winds from a withdrawing monsoon.
This will sustain the windy and showery weather over coastal Andhra Pradesh and extend it further to Odisha, Chhattisgarh and parts of East Madhya Pradesh.
Since the shear zone extends into the Arabian Sea, the unstable weather may trigger some activity over the West Coast and adjoining waters.
‘ANIMATED SEAS’
Coastal Karnataka, Goa and South Konkan are expected to be influenced by associated weather, at times escalating to heavy wet spells at one or two places.
US Climate Prediction is of the view that this activity would sustain over the South Peninsula until October 10, with the West Coast from South Konkan to North Kerala coming under isolated heavy rain. Forecasts show a ‘limb’ from this area of weather activity extending into North Interior Karnataka.
Its weather tracker suggested that the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea would remain in an ‘animated state’ for another two to three days, according to latest available forecasts.
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast isolated heavy rain for coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry for today (Wednesday).
On Thursday, the isolated heavy rain regime would sit over Konkan and Goa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
The showery weather is forecast to spread along the East Coast even as it sustains over most parts of the North-Eastern states.