When Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, expressed his view in a recent interview that the Congress party may be in for a change of guard at the top in the event of the Congress getting less than 100 seats, it seemed like he was indulging in some psychological mind games.

Perhaps he was needling Rahul Gandhi and a number of Congress leaders. It was probably meant to provoke them so that they would be compelled to rush to proclaim his indispensability, one thought.

Besides, it didn’t seem then that it would happen since it was expected that the Congress would at least cross the three figure mark – even if it did not become the largest party again.

If the leads that have come in till now turn into actual results in another two hours, then the Congress Party seems headed for its worst drubbing in its electoral history. And it might well be difficult to avoid a change of guard at the top, given that Rahul Gandhi had led the campaign.

The Congress , even at its worst, had hitherto managed to cross the three-figure mark during Lok Sabha elections. Even in 1999, when it suffered a drubbing, it managed about 114 seats (down by about 50 seats) compared to its outing a year earlier.

The party turned in a better performance in 2004 when it secured 145 seats and managed to form the UPA Government with support from a number of allies, including the Left parties. This performance was again improved in 2009 when the Congress secured 206 seats, garnering about 38 per cent of the votes.

But this time, the scale of the drubbing seems comparable to what the Congress last underwent in 1977 when it was routed from power.

The Congress saw its tally fall to 154 seats then (from 352 seats in the previous election). Then the party had split as one section of the party rebelled against the leadership of Indira Gandhi.

It now remains to be seen if history will repeat itself. Will Rahul Gandhi ( Shehzaada or Prince in urdu, as Modi called him) be able to keep the flock together in opposition when the fishes and loaves of office are no longer available for distribution?

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