War-torn Afghanistan will vote today for a second time in a run-off election to choose a successor to President Hamid Karzai. The run-off, which became necessary as no candidate polled 50 per cent of the vote, pitches former foreign minister Abdullah against former World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.
Hamid Karzai, who will complete two terms as President, is not permitted a third by Afghanistan’s Constitution.
Abdullah Abdullah, who led the first round with 45 per cent of the vote, has the best chance of fulfilling his longstanding dream of ruling the country.
But in this decisive phase of the election, the shrewd political strategists of both camps are working overnight on various permutations and combinations to get the alliance arithmetic right.
The US is keenly observing the election and will wait for the new government to ink the security pact, which will allow Washington to maintain a small military presence in Afghanistan.
Other countries have high stakes on the outcome of the run-off. The Pakistan camp is worried that Abdullah Abdullah has emerged the front-runner. He represents Northern Alliance and the legacy of the late lion of Panjsher, Ahmad Shah Massoud who resisted and waged a lone battle against the Taliban till his last breath.
Due to the proximity of the ISI with Taliban, the Northern Alliance has always maintained an uneasy relationship with Pakistan. A victory for Abdullah Abdullah will restrict the ISI’s scope for meddling with Afghanistan’s politics.
If Ashraf Ghani, a shrewd economist, wins, there will be an increased focus on economic consolidation.
Big task ahead But the new President, whoever he is, will face an uphill task to ensure political stability and strengthen its struggling economy, which is largely dependent on international aid.
India would be happy to welcome either of the candidates as they have managed their equation with Northern Alliance very well right from the days of Ahmad Shah Masood. India is Afghanistan’s second-largest donor and the leadership of both countries are expected to consolidate ties over the next few years.