Nuclear talks between Iran and the six world powers enter a critical phase on Tuesday amid tentative optimism as negotiators start hammering out a draft agreement ahead of a fast-approaching July 20 deadline.
Such a deal would reduce the scope of Iran’s nuclear programme in order to make any push towards atomic weapons all but impossible, while removing sanctions strangling Iran’s economy.
If achieved, this could resolve one of the most intractable geopolitical problems of the 21st century after a decade of diplomatic failure, rising tensions and talk of war, and even help mend US-Iran relations.
“If the odds of the talks collapsing are high, the stakes of failure are higher,” Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AFP. “Time is of the essence.”
Both sides want to build on an interim accord struck in Geneva in November that saw Iran take certain confidence-building steps for minor and quickly reversible sanctions relief. It expires in July.
After the three rounds of talks in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany so far, both sides have been cautiously upbeat.
One major issue, the Arak reactor, appears to have been resolved, with Iran indicating the design could be modified to ease concerns that it could produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, installed by bridge-building new President Hassan Rouhani last year, said after the last round that there was agreement on “50-60 per cent” of issues.
But with both sides sticking to the mantra that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” — one US negotiator likened the process to a “Rubik’s Cube” — this is not enough.
“Even two per cent (of issues) can torpedo all of it,” Zarif told Iranian media. And the remaining issues are “important ones,” he said.
Vaez said the toughest topics are the future scope of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacities, capable of producing the business bit of a nuclear bomb, and “untangling the spider web” of sanctions.