How will a traumatised France, EU react?

Friday night could be a turning point for Europe and the West in more ways than one, as France reels from the impact of the worst terrorist atrocity on European soil since 191 people were killed in the 2004 Madrid train bombings. So far 129 are confirmed dead and 352 injured, with victims from across the world, from England to the US, and Mexico to Romania.

It was also the closest that attackers seem to have got to major European leaders: French President Francoise Holland and German External Affairs Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier were at a stadium watching a France-Germany soccer match when explosions happened at the stadium’s gates as an attacker attempted to enter. The big question is: how will European nations respond — domestically, as a union and internationally.

The response for Europe and beyond was, as expected, the central subject of the G-20 summit currently under way in Anatalya, Turkey. This meet was originally to address a broad range of subjects, from the global economy and climate change to Syria and the refugee crisis.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius stood in for Hollande, who stayed back in France to lead the crisis response. The Paris events have also revived the debate over the West’s attitude towards Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in particular whether to adopt a more conciliatory position, join the airstrikes against ISIS (as France has already done), and deploy ground troops.

Joint statement The immediate rhetoric from Europe has certainly been strong. French President Hollande described the series of coordinated attacks as an “act of war” by a “terrorist army…prepared, organised and planned from abroad, with complicity from the inside.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel dubbed it an “attack on freedom…aimed at us all.”

France is already one of the most active countries in the war against ISIS, joining airstrikes with the US, and French Prime Minister Manuel Valls on Saturday confirmed that France would continue to participate in the campaign.

Predictably, the crisis has brought Europe’s refugee policies — already the subject of great controversy and dissent across the region — into focus. Many have pointed out that creating further divisions, xenophobia and anti-Muslim feeling is one of ISIS’ intentions in carrying out the attacks, reinforcing its view of a world divided between Islam and the West. The heads of state of Europe issued a joint statement through the European Commission pledging that the terrorist attacks would only achieve the opposite of the purpose of dividing, frightening and encouraging hatred. In her statement immediately after the attack, Merkel also called on Europeans to defend their shared values.

This has not stopped those on the Right from using it as an opportunity to question Europe’s open-border policy, particularly given the discovery of a Syrian passport near the body of one of the attackers, and Greece’s revelations that the passport-holder had entered Europe via the island of Leros in October.

In Poland, the new Conservative government — which took over from the former government that had parted ways with other nations in Eastern Europe, and voted in favour of the quota system for refugees being shared across Europe — has now said it wants security guarantees before accepting refugees within that scheme. Other leaders have refrained from such overt rhetoric in the immediate aftermath of Paris, but what happens beyond that remains to be seen, as Right of Centre parties pile on further political pressure across the region.

Questions over Schengen? In France, eyes will be on the performance of the far Right and, in particular, the National Front of Marine le Pen, in regional elections in December. President Francoise Hollande gained popularity following the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, as he strengthened controversial surveillance and intelligence service powers.

It is still too early in this crisis to tell whether that support will remain, particularly given the fact that these enhanced powers failed to prevent the attacks. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the crisis is also raising questions about the future of Schengen, the visa-free travel agreement that 26 European nations are part of.

Antonio Barroso of Teneo Intelligence points out that while it may raise questions about the agreement in the long term, major changes in the short term are unlikely to be brought in, given that the refugee crisis has already led at points to the temporary suspension of the agreement by individual countries (allowed under its rules), as thousands made their way across borders.

“The truth is that the room for large-scale policy change is limited, both in France and in Europe,” he wrote in a note following the attacks. Indeed, the complex and coordinated nature of the attack — links to the attackers have already been established in several other countries including Belgium and Germany — will make the need for further cooperation, engagement and intelligence sharing, rather than division, even more pressing.