As Donald Trump takes over as US President, bilateral defence and strategic ties with India are likely to undergo a paradigm shift, with increased military purchases and geopolitical moves.
Defence trade between India and the US presently stands at $15 billion, from a mere $200 million in 2000.
In August, India and the US signed one of the three crucial foundational agreements — Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) — that will allow their respective militaries to collaborate more closely and use each other’s defence bases for repair and replenishments.
The US signs these foundational agreements with countries that it considers strategically important. However, it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will urge India to sign the remaining two agreements — Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Information and Services Cooperation — as vehemently as the previous government.
“We appreciate the friendship you have articulated towards India during your campaign. We look forward to working with you closely to take India-US bilateral ties to a new height,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said while congratulating Trump on his victory.
The US is also well aware of the fact that India is the world’s largest importer of defence equipment, accounting for 15 per cent of the total global weapons imports in the past five years.
However, Trump’s victory is expected to bring some element of uncertainty in the global geopolitical order, said experts.
“There is going to be some uncertainty with his arrival in the global geopolitical order. We do not know how, under him, the relationship between the US and Russia or US and Iran are going to be and that will be key,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, Vice-President and Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
However, when it comes to Pakistan and issues such as cross-border terrorism, Trump is surely going to be India’s darling. He believes Pakistan is a “dangerously dysfunctional” country and even finds it to be the “most dangerous.”
“Traditionally Republican administrations have been better for India when it came to India-Pakistan ties. But no US administration can ignore Pakistan. And India has to realise that India-Pakistan ties have to be managed by these two countries and not by the US,” said TCA Raghavan, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan.