A private measure of US economic prospects issued on Wednesday showed an improvement in October for the fourth consecutive month, despite the government shutdown last month.
The Leading Economic Index, issued by The Conference Board, a New York-based business think tank, rose 0.2 per cent to 97.5, based on a 2004 mark of 100.
The leading indicators were up a revised 0.9 per cent in September, 0.7 per cent in August and 0.4 per cent in July.
Kathy Bostjancic, who directs macroeconomic analysis at the board, said the figure boosted expectations for overall economic growth in 2014 to 2.3 per cent, compared to an expected growth of 1.6 per cent for 2013.
But working against growth “is the ongoing caution of businesses that continue to keep tight reins on capital expenditures,” she said.
Ken Goldstein, an economist at the board, noted persistent “headwinds” in the labour market and concern about federal budget and debt battles. The next chapter in the bitter division between Republicans and Democrats in Washington will open in mid December, the deadline for agreement on an interim budget, and continue through January and February.
“The biggest challenge to date has been relatively weak consumer demand, which continues to be restrained by weak wage growth and slumping confidence,” Goldstein said.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in seven months in November, casting a shadow over expectations for the coming holiday retail season.
The biggest shopping day of the year will be Friday — called Black Friday because it launches the holiday shopping season that puts many shops back in the black.
The 10 components of the leading economic indicators include government-generated data on average hours worked in manufacturing and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, which are tracked by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.