The deadlock in British politics continued unabated on Thursday, as the Opposition parties reiterated their calls for British Prime Minister Theresa May to show her willingness to engage with them by taking the prospect of a no-deal Brexit off the table.
After MPs decisively rejected her Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday, Britain runs the risk of exiting the EU with no prior formal agreement with the European Union at 11 pm on March 29. The next vote on Britain’s Brexit strategy is set to take place on January 29. As things stand now, it looks highly unlikely that any new strategy that all sides can agree on and which would be acceptable to Europe too can be agreed on within that time frame. The government has maintained the pressure, declining to extend Article 50 and delay Brexit till a solution can be found.
After winning the no-confidence motion put forward by the Labour party on Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May had called for cross-party dialogue to “find solutions that are negotiable and command sufficient support” in Parliament, but her failure to rule out the no-deal scenario meant that Labour did not take part in the talks. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn rejected her offer as a “stunt” of “phoney talks” offered to “run down the clock and try to blackmail MPs to vote with the botched deal.” “Take no-deal off the table now please Prime Minister,” he said in a speech on Thursday.
Following the conversation with May on Wednesday evening, the SNP also backed out of further talks until no-deal was ruled out. “The SNP won’t be complicit in more time wasting. The PM’s offer of talks is a promise to listen, but only if we all agree with her,” said Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland. The Greens and Liberal Democrats have indicated they will continue to talk but re-emphasised the urgency for them of taking no-deal off the table.
While maintaining the threat of a no-deal — and insisting on its preparedness for such a scenario — is seen as an essential part of the government’s negotiating strategy, the refusal to take no-deal out of the equation is not just about this. There are many within the Conservative party — in particular members of the powerful European Research Group who were among the rebels on the Withdrawal Agreement — who believe that exiting without a deal and on WTO terms and thence attempting to reach a Free Trade Agreement with the EU in the right solution for the UK.
On Monday, the Prime Minister will make a further statement on how she intends to take things forward following this week’s defeat. However, a vote on the so-called “Plan B” won’t take plans for another week’s time, just two months before Britain is set to leave. At this stage, MPs would be able to table alternatives including potentially on an extension to Article 50, remaining in the customs union, or a second referendum but whether any of these could command a majority remains uncertain.
In addition what progress in the form of changes to the rejected Withdrawal Agreement can be achieved in that timeframe remains to be seen. The government has made clear that it won’t compromise and consider remaining part of a customs union — something advocated by the Labour Party alongside maintaining similar worker rights and environmental protections as the EU. The government has also ruled out extending Article 50 to give Britain further time to thrash out a deal. Corbyn, while insisting that he would continue to press for a general election including through future no-confidence motions, said that question of needing an extension looked more and more likely.
Second referendum
The issue of a second referendum also remains on the backburner despite vocal calls for one from some Opposition parties, and a group of 71 Labour MPs. The government has ruled out that option. Labour leader Corbyn has conceded that it is among the options on the table, but that he remains convinced that pushing for a general election is the right strategy going forward. To achieve this he would be counting on disgruntled Conservative MPs — unimpressed with the Prime Minister’s unwillingness to take no deal off the table — potentially changing tune and supporting the Labour stance, though this remains a very unlikely scenario at least for now.
There are also major questions around what compromise, if any, could come from Europe particularly on the controversial issue of the Brexit backstop. Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was among those to indicate a willingness to engage in further dialogue but insist firmly that the “onus is on Westminster to come up with solutions they can support” that would also be solutions acceptable to the EU and Ireland.
Varadkar — and other EU leaders — have also ramped up efforts to show their preparedness for a no-deal Brexit scenario. These were “no longer contingency plans but are being implemented by the government,” Varadkar insisted. France — whose President Emmanuel Macron insisted this week that Britain would be the biggest loser from a no-deal scenario — also said they had now activated plans for just such an outcome. However, amid the bravado, some offered reassurances to ease tensions. Belgium’s ambassador to the UK said that even in the event of a no-deal scenario British citizens already living and working there could continue to do so after Brexit.