2014 is an epochal year of possibilities for Indian democracy. With the rise of the aam aadmi, the power of the electorate to decide their own destiny has found expression like never before in Indian politics, rekindling belief in the democratic processes of our nation.
If nothing else, change will no longer be perceived as just wishful thinking but a real possibility and elections will no longer remain a futile exercise but a genuine opportunity to influence our future.
Amidst signs of possible economic recovery in 2014, the real hope of the newly democratically empowered common man is that growth and prosperity will not just ‘trickle down’ but cascade down to his impoverished self.
Blesson Gregory, IIM Bangalore
Being a second year student at MDI, I will be re-joining the workforce in mid-2014. As a future employee, I am highly optimistic and have high hopes from the coming year.
Although uncertain economic conditions and slowdown in project implementations caused a decline in the job market last year, we can see green shoots of growth in some sectors - especially FMCG, hospitality and engineering. The expected announcement of new Banking licenses in January will lead to more hiring in this sector as well. Further, I believe that the General Elections will bring to power a stable and progressive government which will in turn help further re-invigorate the engines of growth of the economy. With the US economy also picking up, the trickle-down effect will result in things turning around in India as well.
Tanmay Agarwal, Management Development Institute, Gurgaon
We should look at 2014 in two parts, with the first part of six months being mired in a lot of volatility in the political circles of New Delhi and the second part being influenced by the result of those political events. The market will be reacting negatively if the present situation continues and the growth forecast would remain under constant scrutiny from various rating agencies that have already cut the forecast for FY2015 to around 5.5 per cent. The rupee will remain volatile by the heightened expectation of tapering of quantitative easing, making it difficult for those engaged in foreign trade. Higher borrowing costs and difficulty in raising capital from the primary markets will be major challenges for companies looking to expand their operations.
Manish Bhateja, IIM Calcutta
2014 is all set to be a year of political drama, speculative forces and poll results shall be a major driver of sentiments in the market. But the new found depreciated Rupee shall contribute required impetus to exporters in the coming year. This year shall also see its share of hiccups, with the gradual and certain US tapering to come. On the whole export driven manufacturing and services shall see a growth in volume which shall impart its colour to better job prospects. Political stability shall fuel the impending investments and spending.
Manish Ghiya, IIMC
For a nation whose growth has stifled due to corruption and policy paralysis in the background of a weak global economy, 2014 comes with the hope of opening doorways to higher growth and lower deficits through committed reforms in infrastructure and tax code. The new governments' outlook to foreign investments and boosting Indian investments abroad would determine the course of economic recovery. The key would lie in a strong central leadership that can think beyond the archaic dictates of socialism and populism and innovate in the space of technology for a determined reform in market driven growth. India's growth engines for job market, IT and Banking, can together provide the thrust provided the government support in building the internet infrastructure and providing autonomy to banks. The central bank's policies regarding interest rates and liquidity measures will be crucial in managing inflation and growth together besides managing capital flows.
Dwaipayan Chakraborty, IIM Shillong
The coming year can be demarcated into two broad era for the Indian economy. The first half being the more shaky and less predictable because of the General election which is due in May 2014 and the Fed plan to taper its quantitative easing (change in Fed chairmanship and other positionsis due making the plan uncertain). The second half seems brighter and more stable. With BJP winning decisively in three major state's assembly election recently, the platform is set for NarendraModi to be the next Prime minister.The recent success of AAP in the Delhi election has put pressure on the political class to perform or quit. The US economy has shown sign of improvement and so has the Euro zone's. With all these factors and a stable government at the center I am expecting the long due projects to pass the red tapes boosting the economy.
Aditya Kumar, IIM Shillong
The dawn of 2014 will bring along it new hopes as well as new challenges for India. The economy has started to show signs of revival with the second quarter of 2013-14 indicating an uptick in GDP growth. For most of 2013, India was written off due to rampant inflation, rupee depreciation and sluggish growth across most of the sectors of the economy. But with some strong and novel measures taken by RBI and FinMin, India has awoken from it deep slumber.
I except the economy and market to be range bound in the first half of the year but it could gain momentum if the electorate of the country elect a stable and effective government. But the new government will have to address many structural deficiencies in the economy by formulating strong, stable and novel policies. Rapid infrastructure growth and foreign investment in core sectors can help create millions of jobs for the largest youth population on the planet. So a lot is riding on the people's mandate of 2014 and India Inc. will have its fingers crossed.
Debarun Majumdar, IIM Shillong
2014 will see withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, flow of Iranian oil, Chinese assertion over disputed territories and more will cause ripples in the world. IMF predicts growth appreciation to 3.6 per cent but forecasts lie in places not numbers. European structural rebalancing would allow for low perspective growth, US economy may not ‘turn a corner’ but increased growth, reduced unemployment are on cards. Chinese implementation of reforms with Japanese-Abenomics and South Korea’s consistent growth will attract the locus of economic power. India will be a surprise package, as it goes to polls, locking the nest episode of its growth story in the ballot. Till then the country is halted with continued lethargic growth, prolonged if there is a logjam in government formation. RBI will need to deal with overdue federal tapering. The strong structure of the Indian economy coupled with a spirited private sector will be the drivers of growth. The job market can be expected to improve. Hopefully 2014 will be the beginning of good times.
Shubhang Srivastava, IIM Shillong
2014 could be a breakthrough year for Indian economy. But much will depend on the outcome of the general election and the reforms the winning political outfit is willing to implement. With an economic surge, jobs are bound to be created. With export sectors expected to do exceedingly well in 2014, new outsourcing placements are to materialise in all export driven sectors: pharma, IT, textiles, jewellery are a few examples. The banking sector is bracing itself for a big turnaround due to the RBI's liberalization of the banking industry, making it easier for banks to acquire loans and reducing the amount of red tape within the sector.
Jivitesh Patra, Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai