A matter of opinion polls

The elections this year have take place against the backdrop of social media and digital platforms. Twitter trending has made hashtags like ‘RaGa’ and ‘NaMo’ almost like an electoral parlance. Adding to this buzz, ‘#opinion polls’ has been the burgeoning trend across the nation.While the Congress had earlier written to the Election Commission of India seeking restrictions on opinion polls ahead of the 2014 general elections, citing concerns related to manipulation, the BJP on the other hand, had expressed its dissent, citing it as a part of free speech. Such varied views about the opinion polls has indeed added to the pre-election excitement.

The methodology of opinion polls, first started in the US, was governed by a sample population and data extracted from personal interviews. In its current form, factors such as culture, attitude and demography are also included. Gradually, the effects of social networking sites have also come into the picture.The bigger question is: Do opinion polls misguide the masses? Do they notprovide a level playing field for all the parties?

In 1992, after the demolition of Babri Masjid, people rejected the BJP in various State assembly elections. This again proved the judgement of the voters.These days most of the opinion polls show that the National Democratic Alliance is leading while the United Progressive Alliance is trailing. But is the

modus operandi for conducting the polls being shared clearly with the people? Are these opinion polls a true reflection of the voters’ sentiments?

Healthy Democracy? If these questions jolt a general voter, then it is a good sign for a healthy and progressive democracy. If we go through the opinion polls of the general elections 2004, most of the opinion polls showed that the NDA, which lost the elections, was leading. So it won’t be entirely wrong to say that opinion polls don’t really influence the judgement of the voter on the deciding day.

It is also important that the media showcase the true facets associated with the opinion polls. The Press Council of India and self-regulatory body(for electronic media) should take this issue seriously and make it mandatory to disclose the stake holders of the opinion polls conducting agency, methodology, sample size and other important base data to make the entire system more transparent.

However, banning opinion polls would be a direct attack on media freedom and free speech under Article 19 of the Constitution as such polls have nothing to do with sovereignty and integrity of the nation. The idea here is to respect the thoughts of “argumentative” Indians.

(The author is pursuing a PGP in management from Management Development Institute, Gurgaon.)